Morning Outlook

Wall Street is heading higher once again in the premarket Wednesday as earnings season roles along. After the bell yesterday, Intel Corp (INTC) had their best quarter of revenue since the end of the dot.com days. Investors are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s economic forecasts, which will be released Wednesday afternoon alongside the minutes from the Fed’s most recent FOMC meeting. The fed downgraded their outlook in their Fed statement. Before the bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 36, or 0.4 percent, to 10,324. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 3.70, or 0.3 percent, to 1,093.40, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 15.75, or 0.9 percent, to 1,858.25. In addition to earnings, we will also get retail sales data, which could sour the mood before the market opens.

Equities soared on the street Tuesday for the sixth consecutive positive session. On the hopes of solid top line revenue growth through the remainder of earnings season, the blue chips advanced 146.75, or 1.4 percent, to 10,363.02. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 16.59, or 1.5 percent, to 1,095.34, while the Nasdaq composite index climbed 43.67, or 2 percent, to 2,242.03

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.2152% at 88.544 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1330% at $1.2707 , while the pound gained 0.4446% to $1.5245. Gold lost $4.50 at $1209, while silver dropped 0.34% at $18.19. Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $0.57 to $76.58 on the NYMEX; 0.74% decline ahead of today’s inventory report.

Economic Calender

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in the month of June, which would be the 2nd consecutive monthly increase. That figure is above the disappointing 1.2% decline in May. The consensus range falls as low as -0.4%. and upwards of 0.3%.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in May of 0.2% with the rate of stocking decelerating the most among retailers as businesses appear to become concerned about growth in demand easing. Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in April. Inventories have now risen in six of the last seven months.

Market Summary

Wall Street reversed early morning losses to finish higher on the session and the week. It was a mixed bag of economic data, with stocks sliding on disappointing Retail Sales, then paring losses on a stronger than expected Consumer Sentiment reading. The last hour of the session was once again good for equities heading into the weekend.

At the closing bell, the DJIA rose 38.54, or 0.4 percent, to 10,211.07. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index climbed 4.76, or 0.4 percent, to 1,091.60, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index advanced 24.89, or 1.1 percent, to 2,243.60. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies surged 9.21, or 1.4 percent, to 649.00. Health care and technology shares led the market higher.

For the week, the blue chips climbed 2.8 percent, the S&P 500 index rose 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.1 percent. It was the first weekly gain in nearly a month for the street.

Bond prices rose, with the 10 year benchmark U.S. treasury falling 9 basis points to 3.24 percent. The euro was stable against the greenback. Gold rose $8 to settle at $1,230.20 an ounce, ending the week up 1 percent after touching a new high of $1,254 on Tuesday. Crude oil for July was down $1.46 to $74.02 a barrel on the NYMEX, unable to hold $75.

Economic Calendar

Retail Sales Lead Early Market Decline

Retail sales in May fell 1.2 percent after gaining 0.6 percent in April and jumping 2.1 percent in March. May came in far lower than analysts’ expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. Sales excluding autos and gasoline posted a 0.8 percent drop, following a 0.6 percent boost in April.

Consumer spending has been healthy on average over the last several months, so some retreat is to be expected. However with the state of the economy the way it is, any negative decline will have the market thinking twice as to whether or not it is a signal of a retreat by the consumer.

Equities Turn Higher on Consumer Data

Usually we have seen a rise in sales and a below average reading on sentiment, however Friday saw the reversal. The preliminary reading for Consumer Sentiment in the month of June came in at 75.5 from 73.6 a month earlier. The number was well above the street’s forecast of 74.5.

So lets get this straight, sentiment is up, but retail sales fell for the month? Someone is lying here…

Morning Outlook

Futures are up slightly in the premarket Friday as the street goes for its first back to back gains since April. There is a full plate of economic reports on the calendar today that can extend recovery optimism. The euro is up, however crude is edging lower following sharp gains over the past few sessions. Sp far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures climbed 4 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 10,091. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 0.30, or less than 0.1 percent, to 1,079.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 2.75, or 0.2 percent, to 1,823.75.

Wall Street soared Thursday, with the blue chips getting their first close above 10K this week. Global economic optimism sent the DJIA climbed 273.28, or 2.8 percent, to 10,172.53. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 31.15, or 3 percent, to 1,086.84, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 59.86, or 2.8 percent, to 2,218.71. Small caps led the pack as the Russell 2000 index of exploded 21.50, or 3.5 percent, to 639.79

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3285% at 91.635 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1297% at $1.214 , while the pound declined 0.6066% to $1.4626. Gold was flat at $1222.30, while silver gained 0.13% at $18.37. Light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $0.23 to $75.25 on the NYMEX; a slight 0.30% decline after a run from $69 to $75.

Economic Calender

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in the month of May, which would be the 5th consecutive monthly increase. That figure is on par with the 0.4% gain in April. The consensus range falls as low as -0.5%. and upwards of 0.6%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The first reading of June estimate is 74, up from the final May reading of 73.6;which was a 0.3 point gain.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in April of 0.5% as businesses seem more optimistic about boosting stockpiles following the wholesale inventory report the other day. Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in February. Inventories have now risen in five of the last six months.

Market Summary

Stocks tumbled for a second day to end the week as investors continue to fear that the deep spending cuts under Europe’s bailout plan to solve the EU’s fiscal crisis would slow a global recovery. We saw over a 17 percent jump in the VIX, while the dollar rose and treasury yields fell in the market turmoil. There was good news on the economic front as industrial production and retail sales continue to post strong increases, however it is all Europe all the time. The DJIA fell 162.79, or 1.5 percent, to 10,620.16 after being down nearly 250 points during the session. The decline for the blue chips was the seventh out of the past nine trading days. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 21.76, or 1.9 percent, to 1,135.68, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 47.51, or 2 percent, to 2,346.85.

Despite the poor close to the week, major averages did end their streak of losing week’s after large gains Monday. The Dow rose 2.3 percent, the S&P 500 index added 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq gained 3.6 percent. Lets see if any news comes out of the EU before trading to start the new week.

Crude tumbled on demand worries and the strength of the dollar, which hit an 18 month high against the euro. Light, sweet crude oil for June delivery settled at $71.61 a barrel, down $2.79 a barrel, or 3.8%. Historically, we are entering into the summer driving season where we usually experience peak pump prices.

Economic Rundown

Retail sales rose 0.4 percent  in April, following an upwardly revised 2.1 percent overall surge in March that came on top of a 0.6 percent gain in February and a 0.3 percent gain in January. The American consumer has been out shopping this year in what is perhaps the best news of all for the global economy. The April reading was led by a 6.9 percent surge in building sector sales.

Headline Consumer Sentiment rose 1.1 points to 73.3 for mid-month May, a slight gain from April but still down compared to February or march where the index in both months came in at 73.6. Economists surveyed had expected the sentiment index to hit 73.5 in May. The expectations component improved to 68.3, however still below levels earlier in the year . The current conditions component, at 81.1, has been steady throughout the year as the unemployment rate remains high and pessimism is still rampant on Main Street. Today’s report contrasts with strength underway in retail sales, posing the argument that a burst of temporary pent-up demand is behind the gain in retail sales, not a cyclical shift in consumer behavior, which is what is needed to grow and sustain a recovery after the insane decline following the collapse.

The long term average is 87 so we have a long way to go…

Morning Outlook

Futures are following global markets lower Friday as investors are concerned that the sovereign debt crisis will hamper the global economic recovery. Shocking I know that they just came to this conclusion. We have a host of economic data being released today.  Hopefully attention can be turned away from the macro troubles of the world economy and focus on the domestic side. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 63, or 0.5 percent, to 10,710. The blue chips are looking good for another 100 point swing. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures dropped 8.10, or 0.7 percent, to 1,148.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 11.25, or 0.6 percent, to 1,936.00.

Stocks fell sharply in afternoon trading yesterday, leaving the blue chips with a 100 point move in 10 of the past 13 sessions. The DJIA tumbled 113.96, or 1.1 percent, to 10,782.95. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 14.23, or 1.2 percent, to 1,157.44, while the Nasdaq composite index declined 30.66, or 1.3 percent, to 2,394.36.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.1995% at 92.5650 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated to its lowest level of the crisis, down 0.4152% at $1.2483 while the pound declined 0.2652% to $1.4574. Gold soared $18.10 to a new high at $1147.30, while silver gained 0.75% at $19.64. The downward pressure continues for black gold as light, sweet crude for June delivery fell $1.22 to $73.18 on the NYMEX; a steep 1.64% decline.

Economic Calender

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in the month of April, which would be the 4th consecutive monthly increase. That figure is down from the of 1.6% gain in March buoyed by the Easter Holiday. The consensus range falls as low as -0.5%. and upwards of 0.4%.

9:15 AM
Industrial Production: The index of industrial production measures the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. The consensus is for a production increase of 0.6% for the month of April on growing demand for goods; this however the reading has been all over the map as of late. Production increased just 10 basis points in March.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The first reading of May estimate is 73.8, up from the final April reading of 72.2;which was a 2.5 point gain.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in March of 0.4% as businesses seem more optimistic about boosting stockpiles following the wholesale inventory report the other day. Business inventories rose 0.5 percent in February with all three components up: retailers up 0.3 percent, manufacturers up 0.5 percent, wholesalers up 0.6 percent. Overall inventories have now risen in four of the last five months

Morning Outlook

Strong earnings after the bell from Intel Corp (INTC) alongside JP Morgan Chase (JPM) this premarket has futures riding positive. There is also a host of economic news coming up, so it is a busy morning on the street! So far in futures action, Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 33, or 0.3 percent, to 10,996. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 3.60, or 0.3 percent, to 1,196.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures gained 10.25, or 0.5 percent, to 2,011.50. A lax inflation report, coupled with what should be a solid retail sales number could propel the S&P past 1200.

On Tuesday, stocks overcame a negative start to rise into the finish ahead on Intel’s earnings. The blue chips held 11K as the DJIA rose 13.45 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,019.42. The S&P 500 index gained 0.82, or 0.1 percent, to 1,197.30, while the Nasdaq composite index advanced 8.12, or 0.3 percent, to 2,465.99.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3112% at 93.4900 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.0331% at $1.3609 while the pound gained 0.3218% to $1.5430. Gold appreciated $5.50 at $1158.90 an ounce as the greenback is worth less than the Canadian dollar. Silver advanced 0.80% at $18.40. Light, sweet crude for May delivery looks to halt its 5 day decline after being up 83 cents at $84.88; a 99 basis point gain.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. The consensus for March is for an increase of 10 basis points, while the prior month of February showed no change in the headline number.

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase in the month of March thanks to strong motor vehicle sales and an early Easter Holiday. That figure is up from the of 0.3% gain in February. The consensus range falls as low as 0.5%. and upwards of 2.1%.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in February of 0.5% as businesses seem more optimistic about boosting stockpiles following the wholesale inventory report the other day. In January, inventories were unchanged.

Morning Outlook

Futures rose slightly on Wall Street Friday following a nice red to green reversal into the close yesterday. Traders await further economic data this morning to help push these major averages past 15 month highs, Retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories all major components of GDP will give the market further direction. The strong late buying Thursday is a good indication of where the market wants to go. So far in futures trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 13, or 0.1 percent, to 10,631. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 1.60, or 0.2 percent, to 1,147.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures edged up 2.00, or 0.1 percent, to 1,924.50.

The weak dollar is helping energy and other mining/raw material sectors, which could give the market a leg up as financials have led the rally this week. On Thursday, the blue chips rose 44.51, or 0.4 percent, to 10,611.84. The S&P 500 index advanced 4.63, or 0.4 percent, to 1,150.24, while the Nasdaq advanced for the 6th consecutive session, rising 9.51, or 0.4 percent, to 2,368.46

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.0751% at 90.441 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.6629% to $1.3772 while the pound gained 0.6865% to $1.5165. Gold climbed $8.20 to $1116.40 an ounce, while silver advanced 0.82% at $17.30. Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 57 cents to $82.68 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.69% move up following the weaker greenback and increased OPEC demand forecast.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in the month of February despite better than expected same store sales data. That figure is down from an increase of 0.5% in January. The consensus range falls as low as -0.8%. and upwards of 0.3%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for March is 74, up from the prior reading of 73.6 for February. Trending higher jobless claims and rising energy costs are likely to depress the reading for the time being.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in January of 0.2%. In December, inventories fell by 0.2%.; led by a 0.8% drop in wholesale inventories.

Major averages recovered from early losses Thursday to soar into the close, reversing a trend of weak into the finish. It was another triple digit move on the Dow as the blue chips advanced 105.88 points, or 1.05 percent, to close at 10,144.26. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 10.36 points, or 0.97 percent, to close at 1,078.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 29.54 points, or 1.38 percent, to close at 2,177.41.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is following world markets lower Friday after data showed the euro zone had flat growth in the 4th quarter. In addition, China reiterated its stance that to tighten monetary policy, banks would be forced to raise reserve levels, taking liquidity out of the economy. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 65, or 0.6 percent, to 10,045. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 7.90, or 0.7 percent, to 1,068.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 16.00, or 0.9 percent, to 1,759.50. It will be a busy news day on the street, as data which has been postponed due to the government shutdown will be released. With all of the data points to steer trading, watch out for retail sales which I think will surprise to the upside.

Bottom line, expect a sell off heading into the long holiday weekend, there are too many macro economic questions out there unless a deal is struck on Greece, but that even may be anti climatic.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3676% at 90.10 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.9832% to a 9 month low of $1.3558 while the pound lost 0.6622% to $1.56. Gold fell $8.20 to $1086.50 an ounce, while silver plummeted 1.22% at $15.40 Light, sweet crude for March delivery tumbled $1.42 to $73.86 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.89% decline as it seems that back golds four day advance is coming to a screeching halt.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the month of January. That figure is up from the 30 basis point decline in December. The consensus range falls as low as -0.9%. and upwards of 0.7%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for February is 75, up from the prior reading of 74.4. Expectations have risen, however equities have faltered and weekly jobless claims have been trending higher, which could decrease sentiment.

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget: a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell, and therefore the prices of such auctioned securities. The consensus for January is for a fiscal deficit of $46 billion in January, down from -$91.9 billion in December. As of December, the Treasury’s deficit stands at $388.5 billion, 17 percent ahead of last year. Keep printing that money baby!

Market Summary

Wall Street saw modest gains on Thursday, finishing strong into the close as Intel Corp (INTC) reported after the bell. The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 29.78, or 0.3 percent, to 10,710.55. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index advanced 2.78, or 0.2 percent, to 1,148.46, and tech led the way as the Nasdaq composite index climbed 8.84, or 0.4 percent, to 2,316.74. Look at those blue chips, topping 10,700! JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) also led financials higher as they report earnings tomorrow.

Crude oil for February closed down 26 cents to $79.39 a barrel, while gold settled up $6.20 to $1,143 an ounce on the NYMEX.

Intel Crushes Estimates

Intel Corp. (INTC) after the bell reported a fourth-quarter profit of $2.3 billion, or 40 cents a share, compared with a profit of $234 million, or 4 cents a share, for the year-earlier period. Sales climbed 29 percent to $10.6 billion. Analysts expected a profit of 30 cents per share and $10.2 billion in revenue.

Retail Sales Send Mixed Message

Retail sales fell 0.3 percent last month, the first decline since September, as consumers spent less on vehicles and an array of other goods during the holiday shopping month. It seems like the holiday season was a mixed bag following this Commerce Department report. November and October sales were actually revised upwards however. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.5 percent.

Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected

The Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 11,000 to 444,000 last week, higher than the 437,000 claims analysts had forecast. The four-week moving average of jobless claims, dropped for a 19th straight week, to 440,750 which is the lowest level since the fall of 2008. The worse than expected reading is not a surprise. Unlike prior weeks, there were no holidays to shorten the claims period.

The Congressional Budget Office said the U.S. unemployment rate, which stood just off a 26-year high at 10 percent in December, would likely not drop below 8 percent before 2012. Tough news for Obama and the country…

Wall Street saw a nice advance on Wednesday, recouping the prior sessions losses as stocks close in on yearly highs. The DJIA gained 53.51, or 0.5 percent, to 10,680.77. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 9.46, or 0.8 percent, to 1,145.68, while the Nasdaq composite index advanced 25.59, or 1.1 percent, to 2,307.90. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 8.06, or 1.3 percent, to 643.56.

Morning Outlook

Futures are lower across the board on Thursday, however there is not much variation from the break even mark. Traders seem to be holding steady ahead of the release of the days major economic data in the premarket, including consumer driven data. We also have a lower dollar this morning, which should help add fuel if we get some better than expected news.Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 4, or less than 0.1 percent, to 10,624. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures declined 0.60, or 0.1 percent, to 1,141.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 3.50, or 0.2 percent, to 1,879.00

Intel Corporation (INTC), the world’s largest chipmaker will be reporting earnings today, so watch out for the tech sector to move heavily.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3398% at 91.685 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1511% to $1.4488 while the pound declined 0.0851% to $1.6266. Gold lost 90 cents to $1135.90 an ounce, while silver dropped 0.27% at $18.50. Light, sweet crude for February delivery looks to test $80 again. The contract is up 18 cents to $79.83 per barrel on the NYMEX; an 0.23% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in the month of December led by higher prices at the pump and auto sales. That figure is down from November’s strong 1.3% advance. The consensus range falls as low as 0.3%. and upwards of 1.2%.

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of January 9th , to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 437,000 for first time jobless claims, up from last week’s reading of 434,000; while the four week average continued its decline, drropping 10,250 to 450,250. We are getting close to a healthy range, but there are only so many people businesses can fire, they don’t have to hire though. Obama’s presidency and the recovery ride on job creation!

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in the month of November as the inventory correction is ending. In October, inventories rose by 0.2%, which was the first advance in 14 months.