Morning Outlook

In a surprising move, futures are sharply higher in the premarket Wednesday ahead of a full lid of economic data. We will get our first indication on where August’s private sector employment will stand, alongside key construction and manufacturing data. If the trend continues, we could be in store for some extremely poor economic numbers on the session. But futures don’t seem to care, rather advancing on signs of growth in overseas markets. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 98, or 1 percent, to 10,104. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 12.50, or 1.2 percent, to 1,060.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 24.50, or 1.4 percent, to 1,791.00. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a green to red move as the focus turns to the domestic economy.

Wall Street closed out a terrible August yesterday with a mixed session. Stocks traded in a narrow range as I thought traders would take a wait and see attitude and let all of this economic data flesh itself out. The DJIA rose 4.99, or 0.05 percent, to close at 10,014.72. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index edged up 0.41, or 0.04 percent, to 1,049.33, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 5.94, or 0.3 percent, to 2,114.03.

Currencies and Commodities

It is not a good morning for the greenback. The dollar fell 0.2269% at 84.0040 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.9551% at $1.2801, with the pound gaining 0.2834% to $1.5392. On the lower dollar, gold moved up $4.70 to $1255, while silver climbed 0.25% at $19.48. Light, sweet crude for October jumped 57 cents to $72.49 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.79% advance and reversing its trend towards $70.

Economic Calendar

8:15 AM
ADP Employment Report: The new ADP national employment report can help improve the payroll forecast by providing information in advance of the employment report. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the labor market. The report is a good gage of private sector employment heading into Friday’s report by the Labor Department. The current state of the economy starts and ends with job creation. Consumer spending, housing, wages, and so on are all functions of people having gainful employment.

The payroll company is expected to report that private-sector employers added 19,000 jobs in August after hiring 42,000 new workers in July.

10:00 AM
The ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index gives a great look at the state of manufacturing and the direction it is heading. The cyclical nature of manufacturing could signal a further economic downturn.

The consensus figure is 53 for the month of August, down from July’s reading of 55/5. Manufacturing has led the recovery, and it is critical for the measure to hold above the 50 expansion/contraction mark.

10:00 AM
Construction Spending: The report measures the value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects, giving a great indication of the economy’s momentum. The consensus is for a 0.6 percent decline in July after a slight 0.1 percent gain in June led by a jump in public outlays.

Market Summary

Wall Street surged from start to finish on Monday, closing two percent higher across the major averages in a data heavy week. It was great to see the momentum carry over from July as we start trading in August. June construction spending and July manufacturing activity data exceeded expectations, furthering premarket gains. Financials were strong in the session, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 208 points or 2% to 10,674.38. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 24.26 points, or 2.20 percent, to 1,125.86, above its 200 day moving average, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 40.66 points, or 1.80 percent, to 2,295.36.

Trading volume was light once again as many investors wait for more economic numbers including Friday’s July employment report before they make any big moves. Regardless, even without fresh capital, equities are at 10 week highs. The dollar dropped, sending crude oil for September delivery to a 12 week high, rising $2.39 to settle at $81.34 a barrel on the NYMEX. The next test for black gold will be at the $82 mark.

Economic Rundown

The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index came in at 55.5, lower than the 56.2 headline number in June but above estimates of 54, the first major economic indicator for July. This is the 12 consecutive moth above 50 as the manufacturing sector has truly led the uneven recovery. The 53.5 reading in new orders is the lowest since the manufacturing sector emerged from recession this time last year.

Construction spending rose 10 basis points in June, a nice surprise for the battered sector as analysts had been expecting a 0.5 percent decline. May was revised down 80 basis points to a 1 percent decline. The June rebound was led by a 1.5 percent jump in public outlays, following a 0.3 percent decline the prior month. However, private outlays were extremely weak, consistent with lackluster extension of credit and consumer spending. Spending on nonresidential building projects tumbled for a 15th consecutive month, dropping 0.5% in June.

On a year-ago basis, overall construction outlays improved to minus 7.9 percent in June from down 8.8 percent in May.

Morning Outlook

Global economic optimism is leading stocks higher on Wall Street Monday. Hot of the heels of a terrific July, August looks to continue the momentum. Manufacturing and construction data will be released after the morning bell, which is the start of a busy week of news on the street. Ahead of the bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 106, or 1 percent, to 10,523. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 12.50, or 1.1 percent, to 1,110.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures climbed 19.75, or 1.1 percent, to 1,882.00. Bond prices are down this morning, but still well below 3 percent as investors move into riskier assets to start the session. It will be interesting to see how the week plays out as investors position themselves ahead of July’s Employment Situation Friday. On the corporate front, more than 300 companies in the S&P 500 have so far reported second-quarter earnings, and 76 percent have beaten analysts’ estimates for earnings-per-share.

The end of July brought a very choppy session to Wall Street, which recovered from sharp early losses to finish only with a mixed finish.The Dow Jones Industrial average recouped well over 100 points to close down 1.22, or 0.01 percent, to 10,465.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.07, or 0.01 percent, to 1,101.60. The Nasdaq composite index rose 3.01, or 0.1 percent, to 2,254.70.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.2718% at 86.7050 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1266% at $1.3068, with the pound gaining 0.78% to $1.5811. Despite the lower dollar, gold moved down $3.90 to $1180 as equities rose, while silver climbed 0.62% at $18.11. Light, sweet crude for September jumped 87 cents to $79.82 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.10% advance after sharp gains last week putting black gold in target to close above $79.50.

Economic Calendar

10:00 AM
The ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index gives a great look at the state of manufacturing and the direction it is heading. The cyclical nature of manufacturing could signal further economic downturn, and also can send off serious inflationary pressures in the economy on a higher than expected number.

The consensus figure is 54 for the month of July, down from June’s reading of 56.2. Manufacturing has led the recovery, and it is critical for the measure to hold above the 50 expansion/contraction mark.

10:00 AM
Construction Spending: The report measures the value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects, giving a great indication of the economy’s momentum. The consensus is for a 0.5 percent decline in June after a slight 0.2 percent decline in May led by a dip in private nonresidential outlays.

Market Summary

Wall Street started Q3 the way Q2 left off, down. Equities did come off their lows of the session however ahead of tomorrows jobs number. Futures moved lower in the premarket as wekly jobless claims spiked again(shocker) while the rest of the days data did little to make investors feel better about the health of the economy. By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial average fell 41.49, or 0.4 percent, to 9,732.53 after being down over 150 points. It was the sixth sstraight drop, bringing the index to its October 2009 low. The S&P 500 index fell 3.34, or 0.3 percent, to 1,027.37, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 7.88, or 0.4 percent, to 2,101.36. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 5.30, or 0.9 percent, to 604.19. June’s Employment Situation will be released tomorrow in the premarket and things in futures action could get pretty ugly… I for one can’t wait!  The market did recover from its lows of the session which occured in late morning trading, climbing north into the closing bell. Is that a sign of confidence heading into tomorrow?

Highlighting the economic worries, crude oil fell $2.68, or 3.5 percent, to $72.95 per barrel on the NYMEX, whil gold fell over 3 percent, or $39.20 to $1,206.70 an ounce as the euro advanced agains the greenback. Pretty interesting as yields continued to fall, clocking in at 2.93 percent on the 10 year.

Economic Rundown

The trinity of the domestic economy

JOBS

We called it in the morning outlook, a stubbornly high report from the Labor Department will send futures lower. Jobless claims for the week of June 26th spiked higher by 13,000 to 472,000, lifting the four-week average by 3,250 to 466,500 for the highest level since March. You had a host of seasonal factors, from summer educational related layoffs and census works, but they should be included in the seasonal adjustments. Continuing claims rose 43,000 but the four-week average of 4.568 million. The weak labor market will be the catalyst for our negative growth closing out the year

HOUSING

It was a no brainer that the expiration of the housing credit would begin the double dip in housing, despite historic lows in the mortgage market. The street was expecting a reading lower than the 110.9 in April, but the 77.6 actual was pathetic. Pending home sales dropped 30.0 percent in May, following a 6.0 percent jump in April. Pending sales decreased to a year-on-year fall of 15.9 percent in May, compared to up 22.4 percent in April. By region, pending sales fell 31.6 percent in the Northeast; 32.1 percent in the Midwest; 33.3 percent in the South; and 20.9 percent in the West.

MANUFACTURING

The Institute for Supply Management’s June manufacturing index fell to a reading of 56.2 in June from 59.7 in May. The street was looking for a reading of 59. The slowdown was led by a more than 7 point decline in new orders to a 58.5 reading. 50 is the break even for growth/contraction, so manufacturing at least is still going pretty strong.

Market Summary

Wall Street plunged into the closing bell Tuesday, not quite the start investors had looked for in June. After being down sharply in futures trading, stocks clawed back at the opening bell and stayed mostly positive throughout the session, until the late afternoon. You had a higher dollar and lower energy prices. The energy sector would take a beating as the Fed’s announced a criminal investigation into the BP disaster.

By the closing bell, the DJIA fell 112.61, or 1.1 percent, to 10,024.02. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 18.70, or 1.7 percent, to 1,070.71, while the Nasdaq composite index declined 34.71, or 1.5 percent, to 2,222.33. The price swing had added volatility due to the light volume on the exchange today.

As the euro moved its way lower, so did energy prices. Crude oil for July fell $1.15 to $72.82 per barrel on the NYMEX; unsuccessful in its attempt to break $75.

Economic Rundown

The Institute for Supply Management reported expansion within the manufacturing sector in the month of May, marking the 10th consecutive monthly reading above 50. However, the pace of the expansion decelerated slightly, as the manufacturing index dipped to 59.7 in May from 60.4 in April. The number was better than expected as economists were looking for a number around 59. Despite the volatility in the markets and the uncertainty in the EU, new orders, a gauge of future production, were unchanged at 65.7. Very positive going into June.

According to the Commerce Department, U.S. construction spending rose unexpectedly in April, recording its largest monthly increase in nearly 10 years. Construction spending rose 2.7 percent, the biggest advance since August 2000, to an annual rate of $869.1 billion. March’s increase was revised up to 0.4 percent from a 0.2 percent gain. Economists were looking for no change in the month.

The reading was led by private construction, which posted a gain for the first time since October. Investment in private construction surged 2.9 percent to $565.8 billion after declining 0.5 percent in March.

Morning Outlook

Nothing short of what could be described as an abysmal ADP private sector jobs figure sent equities lower on Wednesday. Before the report, economists were looking for some pretty good numbers on the private rolls, sum 40K. Well we lost about that many and I am shocked stocks held up as well as they did. So we didn’t create jobs in March, hell we are through Q1 and we still are losing jobs.

Today is the last session of the week as the NYSE will be observing Good Friday, the bond markets and Fed will still be open however. The street is awaiting the days economic data which will make it a very busy session. Wall Street looks to open higher as optimism over the state of the world economy, most notably in Asia has rallied global stocks. In premarket trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 48, or 0.4 percent, to 10,845. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 4.60, or 0.4 percent, to 1,169.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 3.25, or 0.2 percent, to 1,959.00.

Hopefully we will see some good numbers on the economic front to help pick up demand and therefore get good hardworking Americans back to work! I know I know, they should just be joining us in chat !

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.0112% at 93.4550 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1181% to $1.3494 while the pound gained 0.3311% to $1.5234. Gold rose $3.30 at $1117.80 an ounce, while silver climbed 1.14% at $17.72. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 62 cents to $84.38 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.74% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of March 27th, to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 440,000 for first time jobless claims, down from last week’s reading of 442,000.

10:00 AM
The ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index gives a great look at the state of manufacturing and the direction it is heading. The cyclical nature of manufacturing could signal further economic downturn, and also can send off serious inflationary pressures in the economy on a higher than expected number.

The consensus figure is 56.3 for the month of March, up from February’s reading of 56.5,but still indicating expansion.

10:00 AM
Construction Spending: The report measures the value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects, giving a great indication of the economy’s momentum. Public project spending puts money back into the hands of those providing the labor and thus has its own ripple effect throughout the economy. A combination of poor weather acrosss the country and weakness in new home construction will weigh on the measure, despite low borrowing costs

The consensus is for a drop of 1.1% in February after dropping 0.6% in January.

Market Summary

Wall Street started the new week and new month off right Monday, with the blue chips advancing triple digits in hopes of halting the markets recent slide. Solid economic data on the manufacturing front sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 118 points, or 1.2%, to 10,185. The S&P 500 added 15 points, or 1.4%, at 1,089, and the Nasdaq climbed 24 points, or 1.1%, to 2,171. All 10 sectors comprising the the broader market finished higher, a nice sign and a rarity after this past month.

Higher energy prices lifted the sector, as crude oil for March delivery rose $1.54 to $74.43 a barrel on the NYMEX; reversing its downward trajectory. As the dollar stepped off of 5 months highs against the euro, gold had its best advance in a while, adding $21.20, to settle at $1,105 an ounce. Silver prices settled 2.9% higher at $16.66 per ounce. It is funny how gold, for the most part has fallen out of favor. Only a short while ago gold was the hot play to the upside as the dollar tanked. However the carry trade became the play as equity markets surged.

Volume was low today on the NYSE, and I expect that to continue as traders position themselves for Friday’s jobs figure.

I am surprised the market just shrugged off the massive budget deficit laid out this morning. Extremely high interest rates are coming in the next 5 years, and it is going to hamper economic growth, and could keep unemployment above 7 percent for the forseeable future.

Manufacturing Increases, While Residential Construction Lags

The ISM manufacturing index rose to 58.4 in January, beating December’s revised reading of 54.9 and economists’ estimates for 56.7. Manufacturing has been a bright spot over these past few months, showing stronger activity than the service sector at this point in time.

Construction spending continues its weak trend, hampered by declines in residential spending and a drop in new home permits. Overall, spending declined 1.2% in December, worse than the 0.3% slump economists had estimated. November’s reading was revised sharply downward as well, from a 0.6% drop to a bearish 1.2% slump.

Market Summary

Wall Street soared on the first trading day of 2010. Futures were up big in the premarket and got an added jolt following the release of the ISM manufacturing reading. Commodity prices rose on the news, while a severe drop in the dollar index gave them room to run. The top sectors comprising the S&P 500 in trading were energy and materials.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 160.06 points, or 1.53 percent, at 10,588.11. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 17.79 points, or 1.60 percent, at 1,132.89, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 37.74 points, or 1.66 percent, at 2,306.89.

Major averages recovered more than their share of Thursday’s losses, and now stand at fresh 15 month highs.

Benchmark crude for February delivery climbed $2.15 to settle at $81.51 a barrel on the NYMEX; slightly off the 2009 high of $82. The EIA will report on supplies this Wednesday.

A gallon of gas at the pump now stands at $2.63, $1 more than the same time last year. Imagine what other things you could be purchasing with that money and how much the economy would be better off if those funds were multiplied through. I filled up my tank yesterday, putting some 12 gallons in. That is $12 I would gladly wish to use to pay for something else! We are not limited to annual salaries over in chat at InvestorsUnder, but what about the average joe? Maybe the average joe needs to join us!

Manufacturing Data Boosts Stocks

The Institute for Supply Management’s national factory index clocked in at 55.9 in December from 53.6 in November. This was the fastest pace of growth in almost four years. April 2006 to be exact. The reading was the 5th consecutive month of gains. A result below 50 indicates contraction, and a number above 50 means expansion.

Construction Spending tells Another Story

Led by a decline in homebuilding, construction spending fell in November to a more than six-year low. The U.S. Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.6 percent in November. The decline to $900.1 billion, the lowest level since July 2003, was the seventh straight month of weakness in the industry.

Markets fell sharply on Thursday on extremely light volume, as most traders had closed their books for 2009. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 120.46, or 1.1 percent, to 10,428.05. The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 11.32, or 1 percent, to 1,115.10, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 22.13, or 1 percent, to 2,269.15. What a year it was, with the street registering its best year since 2003.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is looking to get this decade off on the right foot as futures are pointing higher in this premarket. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 59, or 0.6 percent, to 10,424. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 7.30, or 0.7 percent, to 1,118.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 20.50, or 1.1 percent, to 1,879.25. We will get manufacturing and construction data after the opening bell which could further elevate recovery hopes, or send an uneven signal heading into Friday’s jobs number.

The dollar is well off against other major currencies to start the year, and as a result commodity prices are up sharply. Recent cold in the northeast is also boosting crude prices, which have seen them go from $69 per barrel to over $80.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.1274% at 92.916 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.4752% to $1.4393 while the pound gained 0.0960% to $1.6166. Gold gained $19.50 to $1115.70 an ounce, while silver advanced 1.99% at $17.18. Crude for February delivery rose $1.47 to $80.83 a barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.85%

Economic Calendar

10:00 AM
The ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index gives a great look at the state of manufacturing and the direction it is heading. The cyclical nature of manufacturing could signal further economic downturn, and also can send off serious inflationary pressures in the economy on a higher than expected number.

The consensus figure is 54.8 for the month of December, up from November’s reading of 53.6.

10:00 AM
Construction Spending: The report measures the value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects, giving a great indication of the economy’s momentum. Why would you expand your operation if you think the near term outlook is bleak? The same can be said on the residential front. Public project spending puts money back into the hands of those providing the labor and thus has its own ripple effect throughout the economy.

The consensus is for a drop of 0.5% in November after no change in October. The range on this months reading is from this months reading is -1.2 % to -0.3 %.

Wall Street concluded the month of November with a nice reversal into green territory for the session. At the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 34.92 points, or 0.34 percent, to end at 10,344.84. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 4.14 points, or 0.38 percent, at 1,095.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 6.16 points, or 0.29 percent, at 2,144.60.

The blue chips ended higher for the 5th consecutive month, as the Dow average rose 6.5 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 5.7 percent and the Nasdaq added 4.9 percent.

Morning Outlook

Futures on Wall Street point higher Tuesday, the first day of December as he market is hot off of big November gains. You have to wonder, how much more can this market have? As long as the dollar carry trade stays in play, which it will in the near term, I say rally through the end of 2009! Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 68, or 0.7 percent, at 10,402. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are up 7.90, or 0.7 percent, at, 1,102.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 14.50, or 0.8 percent, at 1,782.00

The market has withstood Dubai, 10.2% unemployment, extremely mixed economic data to come up 60% off of the March lows. Oversold then, overbought now.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.6796% to 86.995 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.4244% at $1.5068 while the pound gained 0.8994% to $1.6588. Gold rose $10.10 to hit a new high of $1192.40 an ounce, while silver advanced 0.89% at $18.69. Crude for January delivery was up 69 cents to $77.97 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.89% gain.

Economic Calendar

Motor Vehicle Sales: Auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies as well as manufacturers of other big ticket discretionary goods in the domestic market.

10:00 AM
The ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index gives a great look at the state of manufacturing and the direction it is heading. The cyclical nature of manufacturing could signal further economic downturn, and also can send off serious inflationary pressures in the economy on a higher than expected number.

The consensus figure is 55.0 for the month of November, down from October’s reading of 55.7.

10:00 AM
Construction Spending: The report measures the value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects, giving a great indication of the economy’s momentum. Public project spending puts money back into the hands of those providing the labor and thus has its own ripple effect throughout the economy. Or so you hope…

The consensus is for a drop of 0.4% in October after rising 0.8% in September.

10:00 AM
Pending Home Sales Index: A leading indicator of existing home sales for the month of September developed by The National Association of Realtors. This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but general sentiment on the consumer front. housing has seen a major stabilization, thanks to the tax credit, existing and new home sales have soared.