Morning Outlook

Futures are down sharply in the premarket Wednesday as the street is digesting what the Fed had to say and exactly how that translates into future prospects of a double dip. At current levels, the market has not priced in a turn in the economy to the downside. We saw that briefly in June only to rebound in July. I expect this back and forth game to continue until we get a clear indication. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 127, or 1.2 percent, to 10,491. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 15.50, or 1.4 percent, to 1,104.20, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 27.75, or 1.5 percent, to 1,868.75. The 10 year Treasury is now at 2.73 percent!

Tuesday saw stocks fall, despite coming off of session lows after the release of the Fed statement. The blue chips closed down 54.50, or 0.5 percent, at 10,644.25. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 6.73, or 0.6 percent, to 1,121.06, while the Nasdaq composite index lost 28.52, or 1.2 percent, at 2,277.17

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.6247% at 84.9060 yen in the currency market, a 15 year high against the greenback. The euro depreciated 1.3022% to $1.3005 while the pound lost 0.8631% to $1.5716. Gold rose $2.60 at $1200.60 an ounce, while silver was flat at $18.16. Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell 86 cents to $79.39 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.07% advance as futures tumble in the equity markets.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to expand to $42.5 billion in June led by higher oil prices. The trade deficit for May grew to $42.3 billion, exports gained 2.4 percent while imports increased 2.9 percent. The increase was led by our nonpetroleum deficit, which widened to $32.3 billion.

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget: a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell, and therefore the prices of such auctioned securities. The July Treasury budget is expected to show a deficit of $170 billion, versus a deficit of $68.4 billion in June. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of July has been $55.2 billion. Ahead of the reading, the fiscal year-to-date budget gap stands at $1.004 trillion.

Morning Outlook

After strong earnings after the bell by aluminum giant Alcoa, Inc (AA) on Monday, markets are up around the globe Monday, while futures on Wall Street are looking to extend its five session advance. Large companies are doing very well, I don’t think that is a surprise to anyone. However until we get them to use that capital we will be in for a tough grind. We got another reminder of the debt crisis that exists as Moody’s Investor Services downgraded its rating on Portugal by two notches to A1 with a stable outlook, expecting sluggish growth over the next 2-3 years hampering revenue ability . Spain is sure to follow while Ireland, who has the largest debt to GDP ration in the EU at 14 percent will surely get put on notice. So far before the bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 51, or 0.5 percent, to 10,232. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures climbed 6.90, or 0.6 percent, to 1,083.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 13.50, or 0.7 percent, to 1,833.75.

Major averages eked out a gain at the closing bell by razor thin margins, making it 5 straight sessions of gains. The Dow Jones industrial average added 18.24 points, or 0.18 percent, to end at 10,216.27. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.79 of a point, or 0.07 percent, to 1,078.75, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose1.91 points, or 0.09 percent, to close at 2,198.36.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.38% at 88.28 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1884% to $1.2572 while the pound gained 0.4956% to $1.5106. Gold rose $8.50 at $1207.20 an ounce on Portugal’s downgrade, while silver climbed 0.99% at $18.09. Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose 89 cents to $75.84 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.19% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to expand to $39 billion in April led by higher oil prices. The trade deficit for May grew to $40.3 billion, exports slipped 0.7 percent while imports decreased 0.4 percent.. Another dip for exports in today’s trade report could raise concern over foreign demand.

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget: a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell, and therefore the prices of such auctioned securities. The June Treasury budget is expected to show a deficit of $70 billion, versus a deficit of $135.9 billion in May. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of June has been $16.7 billion

Morning Outlook

Worldwide economic data sent stocks higher overnight, with futures on Wall Street following the trend. Traders will be focused on the domestic data of the day, with extra attention paid to the weekly jobless claims number following May’s employment situation. The euro dollar trade is also moving in the right direction on the global economic optimism this morning. Before the release of the report, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 77, or 0.8 percent, to 9,980. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 10.50, or 1 percent, to 1,066.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 14.00, or 0.8 percent, to 1,796.25. The key to holding these levels, nothing terrible on the jobs front, nothing unexpected in the marketplace, and keep the euro moving higher.

It was another 100 point swing for the blue chips on Wednesday. After crossing back over 10K earlier in the session, the DJIA fell 40.73, or 0.4 percent, to 9,899.25. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 6.31, or 0.6 percent, to 1,055.69, while the Nasdaq composite index declined 11.72, or 0.5 percent, to 2,158.85.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.1082% at 91.2010 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.6438% at $1.2056, while the pound gained 0.4432% to $1.4592. Gold moved down $2.50 to $1227.40, while silver fell 0.82% at $18.04. Light, sweet crude for July gained 54 cents to $74.93 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.73% advance as crude will once again test that $75 mark.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to expand to $41 billion in April led by higher oil prices. The trade deficit for March grew to $40.4 billion.

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of June 5th, to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for 448,000 for first time jobless claims, down from last week’s reading of 453,000 which was a 10,000 decline.

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget: a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell, and therefore the prices of such auctioned securities. The May Treasury budget is expected to show a deficit of $140 billion, versus a deficit of $82.7 billion in April as tax receipts have been extremely weak.

Morning Outlook

Futures are pointing to a higher opening on Wall Street Wednesday as the euro moves higher against the greenback. Of course as we have seen, how futures have started has not been an accurate predictor of where we will be at when the closing bell sounds with these large price swings. So far on this quiet Wednesday morning, Dow Jones industrial average futures advanced 23, or 0.2 percent, to 10,732. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 3.70, or 0.3 percent, to 1,155.90, while Nasdaq 100 index futures climbed 4.75, or 0.3 percent, to 1,940.00. It is not only a good morning for equities, but also gold as well as the commodity is trading at a an all time high. Between the dollar, gold, lower treasury yields and lower crude, risk aversion is trendy again.

Wall Street was down, up, and back down again by the closing bell Tuesday. The DJIA fell 36.88, or 0.3 percent, to 10,748.26. The S&P 500 index lost 3.94, or 0.3 percent, to 1,155.79, while the Nasdaq composite was the lone winner on the street, rising 0.64, or less than 0.1 percent, to 2,375.31.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.6476% at 93.2450 yen in the currency market. The euro edged higher, appreciating 0.2239% to $1.2691 while the pound lost 0.1822% to $1.4928. Gold climbed for the second straight day, surging $17.90 at $1238.20 an ounce, while silver gained 1.20% at $18.53. Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose 29 cents to $76.66 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.38% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to expand to $41 billion in March led by higher oil prices. The trade deficit for February grew to $39.7 billion.

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget: a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell, and therefore the prices of such auctioned securities. The April Treasury budget is expected to show a deficit of $40 billion, versus a deficit of $65.4 billion in March.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is following world markets lower on Tuesday following Alcoa, Inc’s disappointing revenue numbers. AA is the market trendsetter, and the street has high hopes for this earnings season. Commodities are declining on the news as concerns are in the air over true demand, while investors realign their expectations for the rest of a long earnings season. So far in premarket trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 17, or 0.2 percent, to 10,935. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures declined 2.30, or 0.2 percent, to 1,190.30, while Nasdaq 100 index futures lost 4.75, or 0.2 percent, to 1,987.75. There isn’t much by way of economic news, however chip heavyweight Intel Corp (INTL) and railroad operator CSX Corp (CSX) will be reporting after the bell.

Major averages are coming off of solid gains yesterday leading into Alcoa’s after the bell report. We saw the blue chips break and hold 11K, closing up 8.62 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,005.97. The S&P 500 index rose 2.11, or 0.2 percent, to 1,196.48, finishing just shy of 1200, while the Nasdaq composite index advanced 3.82, or 0.2 percent, to 2,457.87.

The premarket decline is only slight to this point, and we know how how quickly there can be red to green action.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.2252% at 93.0300 yen in the currency market. The euro was flat at $1.3591 following a successful Greek bond sale of euro denominated debt. The pound gained 0.3525% to $1.5422. Gold declined $8.30 at $1153.90 an ounce, while silver lost 1.43% at $18.15. Light, sweet crude for May delivery declined 55 cents at $83.79; a 65 basis point drop.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to expand to $39 billion in February on reduced demand for imports. The trade gap narrowed to $37.3 billion in January.

Seems like China will actually be doing something on their currency ( i know we have heard that before).

Financials and tech led major averages higher on Tuesday, and as a result the Dow was the worst performer considering the composit of the 30 stocks. The blue chips rose 2.95, or less than 0.1 percent, to 10,567.33, while the S&P 500 index gained 5.16, or 0.5 percent, to 1,145.61. The tech heavy Nasdaq climbed 18.27, or 0.8 percent, to 2,358.95.

Morning Outlook

Futures are heading slightly lower in the premarket Thursday as the street awaits trade and jobless claims data. With the reports due to roll out in about half an hour, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 18 points, or 0.2 percent, to 10,547. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures declined 3.40, or 0.3 percent, to 1,142.30, while Nasdaq 100 index futures lost 1.25, or 0.1 percent, to 1,917.50.

We would love to see a really good number on the claims front, something to shock the market and give a sense that jobs are being created. The trade figures could move the dollar, but at the same time spot the jobless claims are the bigger deal .

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.1489% at 90.65 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.015% to $1.366 while the pound gained 0.4473% to $1.5044. Gold fell $1.60 to $1106.50 an ounce, while silver lost 26 basis points at $16.97. Light, sweet crude for April delivery was hovering around flat at $82 per barrel.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to widen to $41 billion in January to after rising nearly $ 4 billion to $40.2 billion in December on increased petroleum imports. Exports have risen for 8 consecutive months.

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of March 6th , to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 460,000 for first time jobless claims, down from last week’s reading of 469,000. Following last weeks 29,000 decline, the four week average fell 3,500 to 470,750.

Brought to you by my freshly brewed Dunkin Donuts Coffee, extra skim milk and one splenda

Wall Street looked to right the ship, at least momentarily on Tuesday as the major averages all saw hefty advances. It was a brief stint for the blue chips below 10K as the Dow Jones Industrial average saw its largest advance in 3 months, gaining 150.25, or 1.5 percent, to 10,058.64. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 13.78, or 1.3 percent, to 1,070.52, while the Nasdaq composite index climbed 24.82, or 1.2 percent, to 2,150.87.

Morning Outlook

It is another snowy day in the nation’s capitol, delaying the release of scheduled economic data. The government isn’t open for business, but Wall Street is and the chat room is where the profits are at. Following yesterday’s triple digit advance, stocks look to open to the upside once again. Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 36 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10,040. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 4.30, or 0.4 percent, to 1,070.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures gained 5.50, or 0.3 percent, to 1,757.50.

It looks as if the healthiest and strongest of the 16 euro nations will be forced to supplement, and ultimately reward the incompetence of the weaker members, i.e Greece. Just to give an example of what kind of country we are dealing with, the current retirement age to receive what amounts to social security is 61!

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.0106% at 89.685 yen in the currency market. After a strong advance yesterday, T\the euro depreciated 0.2106% to $1.3768 while the pound lost 0.5959% to $1.5626. Gold gained $4.20 to $1081.40 an ounce, while silver climbed 1.13% at $15.61. Light, sweet crude for March delivery edged up 42 cents to $74.17 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.52% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production, and was a focus for the President in the State of the Union. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to contract to $35.7 billion in December after the U.S. international trade gap in November widened to $36.4 billion.

U.S. stocks ended mostly higher, helped by strong Chinese economic data and confidence ahead of earnings season. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 45.80, or 0.43 percent, to 10,663.99. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index advanced 2 or 0.17 percent, to 1,146.98, while the Nasdaq composite was the lone laggard, declining 4.76, or 0.21 percent, to 2,312.41. The blue chips and benchmark S&P hit new 15 month highs.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street looks to open lower Tuesday over concerns over the quality of quarterly earnings. AA kicked things off yesterday and didn’t impress, while Electronic Arts Inc (ERTS) warned on fiscal 2010 earnings, blaming weakness in Europe as well as a shift toward lower-margin products in Europe. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 68, or 0.6 percent, to 10,536. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures declined 8.20, or 0.7 percent, to 1,134.30, while Nasdaq 100 index futures lost 14.00, or 0.7 percent, to 1,869.50.

China, after seeing explosive growth in exports, pumped up their lending rate from 1.76 percent to 1.84 percent while increase reserve requirements by 0.5 percent. Things are just on fire in the far east, and many fear that the entire country is an asset bubble waiting to burst, or even go as far as saying the Chinese government is cooking the books on growth.

On the Corporate Front

Alcoa Inc (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, saw shares fall following their earnings statement. Sales fell 4.5 percent to $5.43 billion despite an 18 percent increase in the price of aluminum. In the 4th quarter, AA posted a once cent profit per share, below analyst estimates of six cents.

Currencies and Commodities

The greenback was mixed in trading while most commodities fell. The dollar fell 0.7037% at 91.44 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1106% to $1.4497 while the pound rose 0.2364% to $1.6153. Gold shed $3.10 to $1148.30 an ounce, while silver declined 1.23% at $18.45. Light, sweet crude for February delivery dropped back under $82 per barrel on the NYMEX following its sharp advance to 15 month highs. The contract is losing $1.14 to $81.38 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.38% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to widen to $35 billion in November as the weak dollar has been boosting the U.S. economy with exports rising for six consecutive months.. The trade gap narrowed to $32.9 billion in October.

Market Summary

Wall Street edged up for the 2nd straight session as good economic data stemming from jobless claims and international trade lifted optimism that the world’s largest economy is on a steady path to recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 68.78 points, or 0.67 percent, to 10,405.83. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 6.37 points, or 0.58 percent, to 1,102.32, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced7.13 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,190.86. The market came off of its highs of the session during the afternoon following a disappointing treasury action, where the yield on the 30 year rose to 3.487% from 3.423%. The economy isn’t ready to deal with higher borrowing costs which will be coming down the line.

Oil closed lower for the 7th straight day, a period in which the commodity has lost 10% of its value. Light, sweet crude oil for January delivery on the NYMEX settled down 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $70.54 a barrel; briefly trading under $70 per barrel. It is off 13.3% from its 2009 high. Gold rose $5.30 an ounce to $1,126.30 as the dollar moved lower.

Jobless Claims Rise After the Thanksgiving Holiday

After 5 consecutive weeks of declines, initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose 17,000 to 474,000 last week. The four week average declined for the 14th straight week, bringing the measure to its lowest level since last September; dropping to 473,750 last week from 481,500 the prior week.

The number of workers still collecting benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 303,000 to 5.16 million in the week ended November 28, the lowest level since February. The drop in continuing claims is mainly due to people exhausting their benefits and moving to emergency unemployment programs.

Trade Gaining Steam

U.S. exports hit their highest level since November of 2008 as a weak dollar boosted demand for goods and services. As a result, the U.S. trade deficit shrank 7.6 percent to $32.9 billion in October, below analyst estimated of around $36.8 billion. Global demand is picking up, seems like we will be lagging in this recovery.

Despite the continued drop in commodity prices, alll three major averages found themselves higher Wedneday in a choppy session. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 51.08, or 0.5 percent, to 10,337.05 after falling 104 on Tuesday. The S&P 500 index advanced 4.01, or 0.4 percent, to 1,095.95, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 10.74, or 0.5 percent, to 2,183.73.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street looks for a higher trading session as athe dollar heads lower in the premarket. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 30, or 0.3 percent, to 10,360. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 4.20, or 0.4 percent, to 1,099.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 3.75, or 0.2 percent, to 1,796.25.

The market will be hit with soome economic data before the bell, and hopes to see a continued decline in weekly jobless claims off the heel of Friday’s jobs number. With the dollar sagging, commodities are heading high. The blue chips find themselves 130 points off of their 2009 intra day high.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.4208% at 88.24 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.0278% to $1.473 while the pound increased 0.2054% to $1.6294. Gold looks to rise after 4 consecutive losses, up $4.30 to $1125.20 an ounce, while silver edged up 1.28% at $17.40. Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 39 cents to $71.06 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.55% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
International Trade: Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. Imports may act as a drag on domestic growth and they may also increase competitive pressures on domestic producers. Exports boost domestic production. We have had huge trade deficits in recent years, with foreign countries able to produce goods cheaper. The trade gap is expected to drop to $35.4 billion in October on reduced demand for imports as well as U.S. products abroad. The trade gap expanded to $36.5 billion in September as the dollar dropped.

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of December 5th , to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 460,000 for first time jobless claims, up from last week’s reading of 457,000; while continuing claims fell to 5.465 million. The four week moving average fell 16,500 to 496,500.