Here We Go! Futures Edge Up on Jobs Friday
Posted Friday, September 3rd, 2010 in DailyRead, Morning Outlook by ILive-DaveTags: Economic Calendar, Employment Situation, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Morning Outlook
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Morning Outlook
Here we go! It is jobs Friday to end the first week of September. Lets see if we can continue the hot streak of into the Labor Day weekend. The real economy is jobs and paychecks, what people buy and what they sell. To do all this, people need jobs! The countdown is on to the August Employment Situation. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 5, or 0.1 percent, to 10,314. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 0.90, or 0.1 percent, to 1,090.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 5.00, or 0.3 percent, to 1,842.25. I don’t think expectations are that high. If we can meet or beat those expectations, despite a negative number, combined with the manufacturing data this week, could elevate double dip fears.
Wow was I wrong about the action on the street this week. Traders said forget about standing still, lets make a move! Stocks rose Thursday, extending their gains from the day before, after reports on housing, manufacturing and jobs all indicated that the economy continues to grow. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 50.63, or 0.5 percent, to close at 10,320.10. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 9.81, or 0.9 percent, to 1,090.10, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 23.17, or 1.1 percent, to 2,200.01.
Currencies and Commodities
The dollar rose 0.2136% at 84.4550 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1170% at $1.2840, while the pound gained 0.0468% to $1.5408. Gold climbed 80 cents to $1254.20, while silver rose 0.14% at $19.70. Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 57 cents at $74.45 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.76% decline following two days of gains.
Economic Calendar
8:30 AM
Employment Situation: The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation’s business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts expect 90,000 jobs to have been lost in August, while the unemployment rate rises from 9.5% to 9.6%.The range goes as low as 160K following the disappointing private sector report.
The average hourly work week is suppose to hold steady at 34.2 hours. Once again, we would like to see an increase in the work week and in temporary help, which are all precursors to further full time employment. We are going in the wrong direction here as we enter a soft spot in the recovery, this report could be seen the as the one that sends this economy back down.
10:00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: A compilation from 60 non manufacturing sectors across the economic spectrum. The index helps gauge strengths and weaknesses within the economy. The composite index for the month of August is expected to have a reading of 53 ; the composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing rose 0.5 points to 54.3 in July. Most of the data leading up to the service sector report has shown month over month declines, so while we should still see a reading above 50 indicating expansion, it most likely is not as robust.





All jobs all the time as the first Friday of the month brings us the Employment Situation. The premarket is as exciting as it gets for us financial geeks, especially in times like these. Things are pretty quiet to this point, but the excitement is building and futures will definitely react once the report hits. While the market will be looking at the private payroll data, an uptick in the unemployment rate will be a psychological challenge for the consumer to overcome, and we need consumer spending to spark demand. So far in premarket trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 6, or 0.1 percent, to 10,641. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures climbed 1.00, or 0.1 percent, to 1,124.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 2.00, or 0.1 percent, to 1,899.00. Not much movement in either direction until 8:30…
The private sector gain was led by a 91,000 boost in private service-providing jobs. This included professional & business services, up 46,000, and leisure & hospitality, up 37,000. The goods-producing sector lost a net 8,000 payrolls with construction down 22,000. Manufacturing posted a 9,000 gain while mining & logging advanced 5,000. Manufacturing has risen three months in a row.
There are so many questions going into Friday’s session, it should be fun! Yesterday, markets tanked in a full blown correction, or was it trader error? The Nasdaq came out last night cancelling trades executed between 2:40 and 3 that had greater than a 60 percent variation from their consolidated price before the selloff. How can any sucker want to invest with buy and hold strategy when they are being played for fools?! We have the volatility to worry about, we have Europe to worry about, and we have the Employment Situation for April coming later in the premarket which no one is talking about after yesterday’s action. So far, futures are up on the word that these trades would be cancelled as a lot of shorts are covering. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 75, or 0.7 percent, to 10,532. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 10.50, or 0.9 percent, to 1,132.90, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 20.00, or 1.1 percent, to 1,906.00.
The dollar rose 0.2486% at 94.7750 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.9455% at $1.2739, while the pound dropped 1.0431% to $1.4678. Following yesterday’s sharp gains gold rose 60 cents to $1197.90, while silver gained 1.08% at $17.70. Light, sweet crude rose 67 cents to $77.78 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.87% gain as black gold looks to recover the some $10 that the June contract has lost over the past week.
Wall Street is heading sharply lower once again Friday as the market awaits the critically important jobs report. Debt fears continue around the globe and have made there was to U.S. markets over the past few days. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures tumbled 63, or 0.6 percent, to 9,916. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures dropped 7.80, or 0.7 percent, to 1,053.90, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 4.75, or 0.3 percent, to 1,730.00. The market is in free fall since the 15 month highs were hit in mid January.