Morning Outlook

Here we go! It is jobs Friday to end the first week of September. Lets see if we can continue the hot streak of into the Labor Day weekend. The real economy is jobs and paychecks, what people buy and what they sell. To do all this, people need jobs! The countdown is on to the August Employment Situation. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 5, or 0.1 percent, to 10,314. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 0.90, or 0.1 percent, to 1,090.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 5.00, or 0.3 percent, to 1,842.25. I don’t think expectations are that high. If we can meet or beat those expectations, despite a negative number, combined with the manufacturing data this week, could elevate double dip fears.

Wow was I wrong about the action on the street this week. Traders said forget about standing still, lets make a move! Stocks rose Thursday, extending their gains from the day before, after reports on housing, manufacturing and jobs all indicated that the economy continues to grow. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 50.63, or 0.5 percent, to close at 10,320.10. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 9.81, or 0.9 percent, to 1,090.10, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 23.17, or 1.1 percent, to 2,200.01.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.2136% at 84.4550 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1170% at $1.2840, while the pound gained 0.0468% to $1.5408. Gold climbed 80 cents to $1254.20, while silver rose 0.14% at $19.70. Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 57 cents at $74.45 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.76% decline following two days of gains.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Employment Situation: The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation’s business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts expect 90,000 jobs to have been lost in August, while the unemployment rate rises from 9.5% to 9.6%.The range goes as low as 160K following the disappointing private sector report.

The average hourly work week is suppose to hold steady at 34.2 hours. Once again, we would like to see an increase in the work week and in temporary help, which are all precursors to further full time employment. We are going in the wrong direction here as we enter a soft spot in the recovery, this report could be seen the as the one that sends this economy back down.

10:00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: A compilation from 60 non manufacturing sectors across the economic spectrum. The index helps gauge strengths and weaknesses within the economy. The composite index for the month of August is expected to have a reading of 53 ; the composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing rose 0.5 points to 54.3 in July. Most of the data leading up to the service sector report has shown month over month declines, so while we should still see a reading above 50 indicating expansion, it most likely is not as robust.

Morning Outlook

Futures are heading lower int the premarket Thursday. We are seeing some profit taking ahead of the days economic data, highlighted by the premarket weekly jobless claims number. We also are getting more data on housing. The housing market got us into this economic mess, and housing well help drive us out. Of course, we can’t get housing going until we get unemployment under control. Ahead of the opening bell, the blue chips are down 23, or 0.2 percent, to 10,249. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 2.60, or 0.2 percent, to 1,079.10, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 1.25, or 0.1 percent, to 1,818.75. A better than expected number may get the market to move, however, I don’t expect many big bets ahead of tomorrows release of the August Employment Situation.

What an amazing session on the street Wednesday. I was quite surprised to see equities surge, despite the better than expected manufacturing data following a negative private sector job reading. Have we come to the point in the recovery where the market is expecting below par jobs numbers? By the closing bell, the DJIA was up 254.75, or 2.54 percent, higher at 10,269.47. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was up 30.96 points or 2.95 percent, at 1,080.29 as all 10 sectors advanced, while the Nasdaq rose 62.81 points, or 2.97 percent, to 2,176.84

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.2875% at 84.20 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1796% at $1.2832, while the pound lost 0.2693% to $1.5413. Gold is up 50 cents at $1248.60, while silver climbing 42 basis points at $19.47. Light, sweet crude for October is moving lower with futures in the equity market, declining 44 cents to $73.47 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.60% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of August 28th , to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 47-,000 for first time jobless claims after falling sharply by 31,000 to 473,000. It was the second largest decline of the year. Things are not looking good to this point for anything positive come the August Employment Situation. The range falls as low as 465K and north to 484K.

Last week’s number was a nice improvement over the 500K spike we had seen, however, we are still at terribly high numbers and the trend is still up. Housing, consumer spending, and pretty much everything else is based off of people having jobs and I have zero confidence heading into Friday’s Employment Situation.

8:30 AM
Productivity and Costs: Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy’s goods and services for the 2nd quarter. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Productivity growth is critical because it allows for higher wages and faster economic growth without inflationary consequences. The consensus change in nonfarm productivity is -1.9% quarter over quarter, with a 1.2% consensus increase in unit labor costs which is up from the initial reading of 0.2%.

The lack of a productivity increase following months of sharp increases shows that employers will have to start hiring new workers and that it is possible we have enough demand to engage in new hiring.In this case, a lack of productivity is a good thing.

10:00 AM
Factory Orders: Represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. The consensus is for a gain of 0.3% for the month of July. There was a decrease in June of 1.2%. In the grand scheme of things, this report is just a minor blip surrounded by the jobs data.

10:00 AM
Pending Home Sales Index: A leading indicator of existing home sales for the month of April developed by The National Association of Realtors. This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but general sentiment on the consumer front. Economists expect the index to have fallen for the third straight month following the April 30th expiration of the home buyer tax credit which has staled the housing recovery. If you didn’t close before then, let’s face it, you aren’t in a rush to purchase. Especially in this market, we could see a double dip in prices that could actually save you more than the tax credit would have, especially if you aren’t new to the market.

Morning Outlook

In a surprising move, futures are sharply higher in the premarket Wednesday ahead of a full lid of economic data. We will get our first indication on where August’s private sector employment will stand, alongside key construction and manufacturing data. If the trend continues, we could be in store for some extremely poor economic numbers on the session. But futures don’t seem to care, rather advancing on signs of growth in overseas markets. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 98, or 1 percent, to 10,104. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 12.50, or 1.2 percent, to 1,060.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 24.50, or 1.4 percent, to 1,791.00. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a green to red move as the focus turns to the domestic economy.

Wall Street closed out a terrible August yesterday with a mixed session. Stocks traded in a narrow range as I thought traders would take a wait and see attitude and let all of this economic data flesh itself out. The DJIA rose 4.99, or 0.05 percent, to close at 10,014.72. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index edged up 0.41, or 0.04 percent, to 1,049.33, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 5.94, or 0.3 percent, to 2,114.03.

Currencies and Commodities

It is not a good morning for the greenback. The dollar fell 0.2269% at 84.0040 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.9551% at $1.2801, with the pound gaining 0.2834% to $1.5392. On the lower dollar, gold moved up $4.70 to $1255, while silver climbed 0.25% at $19.48. Light, sweet crude for October jumped 57 cents to $72.49 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.79% advance and reversing its trend towards $70.

Economic Calendar

8:15 AM
ADP Employment Report: The new ADP national employment report can help improve the payroll forecast by providing information in advance of the employment report. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the labor market. The report is a good gage of private sector employment heading into Friday’s report by the Labor Department. The current state of the economy starts and ends with job creation. Consumer spending, housing, wages, and so on are all functions of people having gainful employment.

The payroll company is expected to report that private-sector employers added 19,000 jobs in August after hiring 42,000 new workers in July.

10:00 AM
The ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index gives a great look at the state of manufacturing and the direction it is heading. The cyclical nature of manufacturing could signal a further economic downturn.

The consensus figure is 53 for the month of August, down from July’s reading of 55/5. Manufacturing has led the recovery, and it is critical for the measure to hold above the 50 expansion/contraction mark.

10:00 AM
Construction Spending: The report measures the value of new construction activity on residential, non-residential, and public projects, giving a great indication of the economy’s momentum. The consensus is for a 0.6 percent decline in July after a slight 0.1 percent gain in June led by a jump in public outlays.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street looks to continue its slide on Tuesday, the last day of August. Stocks are set to experience their worst month since May, following poor economic data and concerns that a slowdown will occur the remainder of the year. Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 47, or 0.5 percent, to 9,933. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are down 5.30, or 0.5 percent, to 1,039.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures declined 11.00, or 0.6 percent, to 1,757.75. Every second that passes brings us closer to the August jobs data. You can cut the tension with a knife! Unlike prior months, we will be heading into the report in an absolute tailspin in the equity markets. So many questions, will the blue chips hold 10K, will the S&P retake 1,050?

Stocks gave up nearly all of their Friday gains on Monday, as market sentiment continued to move lower on economic concerns. The DJIA fell 140.92, or 1.4 percent, to close at 10,009.73; holding above 10K at the closing bell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 15.67, or 1.5 percent, to 1,048.92, to drop below the 1,050 resistance. The tech heavy Nasdaq composite index dropped 33.66, or 1.6 percent, to 2,119.97.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.2978% at 84.3670 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.0790% at $1.2672 while the pound declined 0.5047% to $1.5384. Gold lost $3 to $1236.20, while silver dropped 0.94% at $18.89. Light, sweet crude for October delivery tumbled $1.10 to $73.60 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.47% decline. That’s all you need to know to determine what is going on with equities in the futures market.

Economic Calendar

9:00 AM
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Tracks the monthly change in home values throughout 20 varying metropolitan regions within country. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales.
Economists forecast the home price index for the country’s 20 largest metropolitan areas rose slightly in June compared with a year ago as tax credits expired. We all know the horrific housing data we have seen since the tax credit front loaded a lot of sales in the market place.

10:00 AM
Consumer Confidence: A survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions for the month of August. The consensus reading for the month is 51 after a slight decline to 50.4 in July, while the range is between 48 and 54. Let’s see if the terrible July data has effected consumer attitudes, with a falling stock market.

Morning Outlook

Futures are heading lower in the premarket on Monday, with cautious action surely to be the theme of the week heading into Friday’s August Employment Situation. So far in premarket trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 20, or 0.2 percent, to 10,121. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are down 1.20, or 0.1 percent, to 1,062.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures declined 1.00, or 0.1 percent, to 1,788.25. These numbers come a session after major averages saw huge gains into the weekend, Lets see if not as bad as expected stays the theme of the week. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!

On Friday, the blue chips climbed back over 10K while the broader market broke and held 1,050. By the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 164.84, or 1.7 percent, to close at 10,150.65. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 17.37, or 1.7 percent, to 1,064.59 and the Nasdaq composite index rose 34.94, or 1.6 percent, to 2,153.63

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.6454% at 84.6750 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.4474% at $1.2705, while the pound gained 0.1634% to $1.5554. Gold is up $1 at $1238.90, while silver is up 48 basis points at $19.16. Light, sweet crude for October is down by 50 cents to $74.67 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.67% decline, as the commodity follows the path of equities.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Personal Income: the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Consumer spending: Includes consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.The consensus increase in personal income for the month of July is 0.3%, up from no change in May. Consumer spending is expected to be flat at 0.1%, on par with the prior month.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is heading slightly higher in the premarket Friday, with equities holding their head high before two big economic reports to close out the week. Dow Jones industrial futures are up 30, or 0.3 percent, at 9,997. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures are gaining 3.80, or 0.4 percent, at 1,048.70, while Nasdaq 100 futures are climbing 8.5, or 0.5 percent, at 1,776.0. Let’s see if the bleeding will stop on Friday, with the blue chips below the 10K barrier for the first time since July 6th and truly no positive momentum or conviction on the street.

Major averages fell once again on Thursday, despite a better than expected drop in weekly jobless claims. Equities went from negative to positive, only to move lower in the afternoon ahead of today’s data and the realization that even though we saw a drop in claims, they currently stand at an extremely high number. By the closing bell, the blue chips were below 10K. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 74.25 points, or 0.74 percent, to 9,985.81. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index shed 8.11 points, or 0.77 percent, to 1,047.22, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 22.85 points, or 1.07 percent, to 2,118.69. Seven straight days of losses and counting…It will be important for the braoder market to hhold 1040 on the S&P.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3188% at 84.7150 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.0346% at $1.2712, while the pound declined 0.1066% to $1.5512. Gold edged up $2.30 to $1240, while silver gained 0.15% at $19.05. Light, sweet crude for October delivery is up 27 cents to $73.63 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.37% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Quarter 2 Gross Domestic Product: GDP measures all the goods and services produced within the United States during the second quarter. The consensus for real GDP (taking inflation into account) in the second quarter is for growth of 1.3% annualized with a 1.8% increase in the price level. Real GDP increased by 3.7% in the 1st quarter of 2009. The range goes as low as 1 % and as high as 1.5%, the movement. This is the second revision, with the final number coming out on the last business day of next month. The revision is a sharp move to the downside, after initial reading showing Q2 GDP coming in at 2.7%. With the July data we have seen this week, and a reverse in the labor market, Q3 will be a test to stay positive.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for August is 69.6, which matches the July reading;which was a 1.8 point gain. I wouldn’t be surprised if this number missed estimated to the downside despite the survey taking place before this week’s data.

Morning Outlook

Futures are pointing higher in the premarket Thursday ahead of the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims number. That is gutsy to say the least. Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 14, or 0.1 percent, to 10,061. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 1.90, or 0.2 percent, to 1,056.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures edged up 3.75, or 0.2 percent, to 1,793.50. The market seems to have formed a solid bottom, at least for now after reversing from red to green yesterday despite worse than expected economic data. Bond yields are falling however, making you wonder how confident investors are before the report.

On light volume, sharp declines in futures trading on Wednesday following continued poor July data gave way to gains. Major averages ended a four session decline as the DJIA ended with a gain of 19.61 points, or 0.2 percent, at 10,060.06. The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 3.46, or 0.3 percent, to 1,055.33, while the Nasdaq rose 17.78, or 0.8 percent, to 2,141.54.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.0479% at 84.5350 yen in the currency market, coming off of a 16 year low. The euro appreciated 0.2034% at $1.2684, while the pound gained 0.3615% to $1.5514. Gold is up $2.70 at $1244, while silver advanced 0.15 percent $19.10. Light, sweet crude for October delivery looks to advance for the second straight day, rising 65 cents to $73.17 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.90% gain.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of August 21st , to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 495,000 for first time jobless claims after rising unexpectedly by 12,000 to 500,000. The four week average soared 9K to 482,500, the same level as December. Things are not looking good to this point for anything positive come the August Employment Situation.

Last week’s number was so bad, a real shock to the system within the economy. Seeing that 500K number, when unemployment is the biggest hindrance to a real economic recovery. Housing, consumer spending, and pretty much everything else is based off of people having jobs.

Morning Outlook

Hesitant and cautious would describe Wall Street this Wednesday morning. Futures are trading in a narrow range ahead of two key July economic reports. It should be a great premarket with a good reaction in equities following the premarket reports. Ahead of those reports, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 2, or less than 0.1 percent, to 10,021. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures were unchanged at 1,049.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 3.75, or 0.2 percent, to 1,770.00. Lets be realistic, how can anyone have confidence in these numbers? There is no economic momentum, and stocks are finally waking up to that. Will the blue chips be able to hold 10K once again?

Wall Street tanked once again on Tuesday, with the Dow and the S&P 500 slumping for a fourth day as an unexpectedly large drop in home sales last month raised more concerns about the economic recovery. The DJIA fell 133.96, or 1.3 percent, to close at 10,040.45. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 15.49, or 1.5 percent, to 1,051.87, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 35.87, or 1.7 percent, to 2,123.76.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar gained 0.7783% at 84.5550 yen in the currency market. The euro fell 0.1093% at $1.2614 while the pound gained 0.0931% to $1.5410. Gold gained $3.80 to $1237.20, while silver surged 1.07% at $18.62. Light, sweet crude for October delivery was flat at $71.61 on the NYMEX, also cautious ahead of the economic news of the day. Crude has followed equities down over these past few weeks, standing at an 11 week low.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Durable Goods Orders: Measures the month over month change in orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Usually durable goods orders follow the trend in consumer spending, and therefore, a measure of strength in the economy. The consensus estimate is for a gain in July of 2.5%, following a 1% decline in June.

10:00 AM
New Home Sales: Measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month of July. The level of new home sales indicates trends in the housing market. We saw a drop in existing home sales yesterday that was much larger than expected. For July, new home sales are expected to be at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 340,000 after rebounding 23.6% in June to 330,000, which is still near record lows.

Morning Outlook

Futures are heading south Tuesday morning, continuing the down move that occurred late in the afternoon on Monday. There are some big economic reports coming out this week, and today we will get July housing data. With the expiration of the home buyer tax credit earlier in the year, all bets are off, and the market is reflecting that. So far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 71, or 0.7 percent, to 10,086. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 7.80, or 0.7 percent, to 1,057.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 13.25, or 0.7 percent, to 1,796.25. I will see you in chat , lets see if we get a red to green reversal during the session.

We saw yesterday that futures activity isn’t always a precursor to the closing bell. Wall Street finished lower on Monday, giving up early gains as the DJIA lost 39.21 or 0.4 percent, to close at 10,174.41. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 4.33, or 0.4 percent, to 1,067.36, while the Nasdaq composite index lost 20.13, or 0.9 percent, to 2,159.63.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 1.0483% at 84.265 yen in the currency market, a new 15 year low for the greenback. The euro depreciated 0.2548% at $1.2624 while the pound lost 0.6150% to $1.5417. Gold lost $7.40 at $1221.10, while silver dropped 45 basis points at $17.96. Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 66 cents to $72.44 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.90% decline. Black gold has taken quite a tumble over the past month, as economic concerns have dampened demand prospects.

Economic Calendar

10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales: The number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. The consensus for July is a 4.65 million unit annual rate, which is a decrease from a pace of 5.37 million in June, where sales fell 5.1% and up 9.8% on a year over year basis. The range goes as low as 3.96 million units up to 5.2 on the high end. The street will look closely, not only at the headline number, but supply on the market as well. Lower supply could drive prices higher as well as spur new home construction, which we will see data on later this week.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is looking to end its two week skid, with futures hire in the premarket Monday. Takeover activity has resurfaced over the past few days, injecting some confidence in the market that corporations will start putting some of the record levels of cash they have on the sidelines to use. Hewlett- Packard Co (HPQ) and Dell Inc (DELL) find themselves in a bidding war. With about an hour before the opening bell, blue chip futures are up 36, or 0.4 percent, to 10,238. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 5.40, or 0.5 percent, to 1,075.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 11.75, or 0.6 percent, to 1,837.25. It is a busy week ahead on the Economic Calendar as August is coming to a close, however it is a quiet Monday, which could be beneficial to keep the positive momentum we are seeing in futures trading.

Equities came off of session lows Friday afternoon, however still posted solid losses to close out the week. The Dow Jones industrial average had lost 57.59 points, or 0.56 percent, to 10,213.62, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 3.94 points, or 0.37 percent, to 1,071.69. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.81 points, or 0.04 percent, to 2,179.76 to close higher on the week.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.4398% at 85.2390 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.0354% at $1.2716, while the pound gained 0.1606% to $1.5559. Gold is down 20 cents at $1228.60, while silver tumbled 0.28 percent $17.99. Light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 24 cents to $74.06 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.33% gain.