Morning Outlook

Wall Street is heading slightly higher in the premarket Friday, with equities holding their head high before two big economic reports to close out the week. Dow Jones industrial futures are up 30, or 0.3 percent, at 9,997. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures are gaining 3.80, or 0.4 percent, at 1,048.70, while Nasdaq 100 futures are climbing 8.5, or 0.5 percent, at 1,776.0. Let’s see if the bleeding will stop on Friday, with the blue chips below the 10K barrier for the first time since July 6th and truly no positive momentum or conviction on the street.

Major averages fell once again on Thursday, despite a better than expected drop in weekly jobless claims. Equities went from negative to positive, only to move lower in the afternoon ahead of today’s data and the realization that even though we saw a drop in claims, they currently stand at an extremely high number. By the closing bell, the blue chips were below 10K. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 74.25 points, or 0.74 percent, to 9,985.81. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index shed 8.11 points, or 0.77 percent, to 1,047.22, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 22.85 points, or 1.07 percent, to 2,118.69. Seven straight days of losses and counting…It will be important for the braoder market to hhold 1040 on the S&P.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3188% at 84.7150 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.0346% at $1.2712, while the pound declined 0.1066% to $1.5512. Gold edged up $2.30 to $1240, while silver gained 0.15% at $19.05. Light, sweet crude for October delivery is up 27 cents to $73.63 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.37% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Quarter 2 Gross Domestic Product: GDP measures all the goods and services produced within the United States during the second quarter. The consensus for real GDP (taking inflation into account) in the second quarter is for growth of 1.3% annualized with a 1.8% increase in the price level. Real GDP increased by 3.7% in the 1st quarter of 2009. The range goes as low as 1 % and as high as 1.5%, the movement. This is the second revision, with the final number coming out on the last business day of next month. The revision is a sharp move to the downside, after initial reading showing Q2 GDP coming in at 2.7%. With the July data we have seen this week, and a reverse in the labor market, Q3 will be a test to stay positive.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for August is 69.6, which matches the July reading;which was a 1.8 point gain. I wouldn’t be surprised if this number missed estimated to the downside despite the survey taking place before this week’s data.

Morning Outlook

Stocks are heading lower for the fourth consecutive session Friday morning. A busy and important day on the economic calendar, with consumer, retail, and inflation data. So far in premarket trading, Dow Jones Industrial futures are down 21, or 0.2 percent, at 10,250. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are down 3.10, or 0.3 percent, at 1,076.10. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 8.75, or 0.5 percent, at 1,818.50. In a bearish sign, the 10 year treasury fell 3 basis points to 2.72 percent. We need some good news to boost sentiment heading into the weekend and reverse the first half of August declines. Regardless, chat has been amazing, see you there!

Tech led Wall Street lower on Thursday, the third consecutive decline and put the major averages at breakeven for the year following stubbornly high jobless claims. The DJIA fell 58.88, or 0.6 percent, to 10,319.95. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 5.86, or 0.5 percent, to 1,083.61, while the tech heavy Nasdaq composite index tumbled 18.36, or 0.8 percent, to 2,190.27.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.1828% at 85.7450 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1680% at $1.2808, while the pound gained 0.0581% to $1.5588. Gold moved up 50 cents to $1217.20, while silver climbed 0.08% at $18.08. Light, sweet crude came up 6 cents to $75.80 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.08% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the month of July. That figure is above the disappointing 0.5% decline in June, led by autos. The consensus range falls as low as 0.2%. and upwards of 1%.

8:30 AM
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in July, with a 0.1% gain excluding food and energy. This follows a 0.1% drop in June for the third monthly decline in a row as a drop in energy prices weigh on the headline number.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for August is 69, up from July’s final reading of 67.8 which was a 1.3 point gain. Let see if that strong gain from mid month to the end of July gain carry over into August.

Market Summary

The end of July brought a very choppy session to Wall Street, which recovered from sharp early losses to finish only slightly to the downside. Overall it was a great month for the equity market, moving out of correction territory. It was a one two punch of economic data, with the release of Q2 GDP and Consumer Sentiment. The negative start to the session shows the market is unhappy with growth prospects in Q3 and Q4. The Dow Jones Industrial average recouped well over 100 points to close down 1.22, or 0.01 percent, to 10,465.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.07, or 0.01 percent, to 1,101.60. The Nasdaq composite index rose 3.01, or 0.1 percent, to 2,254.70. Volume for the month was very low, which doesn’t give to much confidence to sustainability. New money is still on the sidelines. Hopefully Friday’s July Employment Situation will shed positive light on the jobs front.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.91 percent from 2.99 percent. The crude contract for September delivery added 59 cents, or 0.8%, to $78.95 a barrel on the NYMEX. Hey, the fundamentals are bearish but the sentiment in the market is bullish as of late. Lets see if we can get a close above $79.50 to set up an $80 plus move.

Economic Rundown

GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.4 percent in the second quarter, less than the 2.5 percent forecast of economists. However, a huge positive in the report shows revisions to Q1, a full one percentage point higher to 3.7 percent. That could be enough to keep us going into double dip territory. The latest quarter was led by a rebound in residential investment, a jump in investment in equipment & software, and by inventories.Consumer spending declined 50 basis points as stagnation in the labor market lingers. Year-on-year, real GDP is up 3.2 percent, compared to up 2.4 percent in the first quarter.

The reading wasn’t terrible, it was in line with expectations and we also saw the Q1 revision and a 1.8 percent increase in the price level. But the trend is definitely down, from 5 plus percent in the 4th quarter of 2009, to 3.7 percent in Q1, to 2.4 percent in Q2 if this reading holds up to further revisions. With the labor market and wages the way they are, and constraints on fiscal policy, something needs to reverse the trend and the structural integrity of the U.S economy. The Great Recession was worse than most believe, and although the bleeding has stopped, the scar is still very sensitive.

After plunging nearly 10 points in the first half of July, consumer sentiment edged higher in the final reading. The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index rose 1.3 points to 67.8 vs. 66.5 at mid-month and compared against 76.0 at month-end June. The street was looking for a reading of 67. We still have quite a way to go to recover the losses, however this is a step in the right direction. Classic for an uneven recovery.

Morning Outlook

It is no doubt all about the 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product in the premarket Friday morning. This number is huge, as the market has been going back and forth on every data piece, at times pricing in a recession and falling under 10K, while currently factoring in just a bumpy, uneven recovery. Today’s session brings us the last trading day of July, and what a hot month it has been in chat , and a positive one on the street. Without even looking at equities, the euro is down as well as crude, not bullish on economic prospects heading into the release of the report. So far in premarket action, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 40 points to 10,369. S&P 500 futures fell 5.70 points to 1,091.30 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 8.50 points to 1,848.70. The street is set for opening losses, will there be an upside surprise to change that in the GDP number?

Wall Street came off of morning gains to finish lower on Thursday’s session. Yes, major averages came off their lows of the session, however confidence was shaky heading into Friday’s premarket. The Dow Jones Industrials lost 30.72, or 0.3 percent, to 10,467.16 for their second consecutive decline. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 4.60, or 0.4 percent, to 1,101.53, while the Nasdaq composite index declined 12.87, or 0.6 percent to 2,251.69.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.6695% at 86.2050 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.5498% at $1.3007 on after Moody’s comments regarding Spain’s likely downgrade from aaa status. The pound declined 0.0288% to $1.5608. Gold moved down 70 cents to $1170.50, while silver declined 0.18% at $17.58. Light, sweet crude continued to march down from its $80 test, losing 66 cents to $77.70 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.84% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Quarter 2 Gross Domestic Product: GDP measures all the goods and services produced within the United States during the second quarter. The consensus for real GDP (taking inflation into account) in the second quarter is for growth of 2.5% annualized with a 1% increase in the price level. Real GDP increased by 2.7% in the 1st quarter of 2009. The range goes as low as 1 % and as high as 3.4%, the movement after the number will be very interesting. We did have the run up to the expiration of the housing tax credit in April, but all indicators since that point have been to the downside.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for July is 67, up from the previous reading of 66.5;which was a sharp 10 point drop. Following the decline in consumer confidence earlier in the week, I wouldn’t be surprised if this number missed estimated to the downside.

Market Summary

Wall Street tumbled on Friday, ending the week on a sharply lower note on fresh worries on the economy and the future of the banking industry now that Congress has approved the banking industry overhaul bill. It was a plunge after the 9.55 AM release of Consumer Sentiment for the month of June. The blue chips followed its 7 day win streak with 2 consecutive declines to close out the week. The DJIA fell 261.41, or 2.5 percent, to 10,097.90. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost31.60, or 2.9 percent, to 1,064.88, while the Nasdaq composite index declined 70.03, or 3.1 percent, to 2,179.05. Tech was hit hard by earnings from Google Inc (GOOG) after the bell on Thursday, while financials led the overall market lower headed up by blue chipper Bank of America Corp (BAC)

For the week, the blue chips lost 1 percent, the S&P 500 was red by 1.2 percent, and the Nasdaq is dropped 0.8 percent.It was the third loss in four weeks for the major averages.  It will be important to see some positive earnings statements this upcoming week as earnings season continues to shift the momentum. At least the oil spill has stopped!

Gold prices fell, however, losing more than 1% to retreat below $1,200 a troy ounce despite the drop in equities. Crude oil for August fell 61 cents, to $76.01 a barrel on the NYMEX. September will be the front month contract on Monday. The yield on the 10 year treasury tumbled 7 basis points to 2.93 points as investors fled to safety, sending prices higher.

Economic Rundown

Lower energy costs tugged down on the consumer price index in June, resulting in a third consecutive decline in the headline number. In June overall CPI inflation dipped 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent decline in May. The latest month matched the market projection for a 0.1 percent decline. Excluding food and energy, the CPI edged up to 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent uptick in May. This was higher than analysts’ forecast for a 0.1 percent rise.

By components, energy component dropped 2.9 percent, equaling the May decrease. Gasoline fell 4.5 percent after a 5.2 percent decrease the previous month.

Mid July Consumer Sentiment plunged on economic concerns. It was the the first real movement in the index despite the weakening economy throughout the second quarter. The labor market, volatile financial markets, and oil spill sent the index down 8.5 points from the end of June to a 66.5 reading that pushes this index back to the lows of last year. What is surprising is what has changed since the last reading? Labor market expectations, wage growth and so on has been declining steadily, we haven’t reached another economic cliff.

Morning Outlook

It is an earnings full premarket on Wall Street Friday, as big boys General Electric Co (GE) and Bank of America Corp (BAC) beat analyst estimates following Google’s miss on profit after the bell yesterday. The street will get a gauge on the consumer while headline inflation most likely continued to move down following the tumble in the Producer Price Index. Futures are heading higher before the bell as we wrap up the first week of Q2 earnings while the dollar is mixed. So far in the premarket, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 16, or 0.2 percent, to 10,308. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures advanced 3.10, or 0.3 percent, to 1,093.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures climbed 4.00, or 0.2 percent, to 1,853.25.

Stocks recovered most of their losses on Thursday as the SEC and GS settled fraud charges to the sum of $550 million, which to my surprise was the largest fine ever to a Wall Street firm. The DJIA fell 7.41, or 0.07 percent, to 10,359.31. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index edged up1.31, or 0.1 percent, to 1,096.48, while the Nasdaq composite index declined 0.76, or 0.03 percent, to 2,249.08

On the Corporate Front

Bank of America’s second-quarter net income came in at $2.78 billion 27 cents per share, up 15 percent from $2.42 billion, or 33 cents per share a year ago. Analysts expected profit of 22 cents per share in the quarter.

GE saw a 4 percent decline in revenue, while quarterly net income rose 16 percent to $3.0 billion, or 28 cents per share, up from $2.6 billion, or 25 cents per share, a year earlier. The bottom line was helped by a $3 billion cut in expenses.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.8281% at 86.673 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.3431% at $1.2994, while the pound lost 0.6136% to $1.5367. Gold moved down $2.50 to $1205.80, while silver fell 0.50% at $18.27. Light, sweet crude came up 8 cents to $76.70 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.10% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in June, with a 0.1% gain excluding food and energy. This follows a 0.2% drop in May for the second monthly decline in a row as a drop in energy prices weigh on the headline number.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for July is 75, down from June’s final reading of 76 which was a 0.5 point gain. We haven’t really seen a decline in sentiment despite the softening economy. It is still more important to see consumers spend rather than what they say in a poll.

Market Summary

Wall Street was mixed at the closing bell Friday in a choppy session following mixed economic data and a financial reform deal. Bank stocks were the big winners as investors digested the news and parsed through the most sweeping regulatory legislation since the Great Depression. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 8.99, or 0.1 percent, to 10,143.81. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 3.07, or 0.3 percent, to 1,076.76 to snap its four session decline, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 6.06, or 0.3 percent, to 2,223.48.

It was the end of a terrible week for the equity markets. The last full week of the second quarter saw the blue chips fall 306.83 points, or 2.9 percent, the S&P lost 40.75, or 3.6 percent, while the tech heavy Nasdaq declined 86.32, or 3.7 percent. The weekly losses brought the major averages back into negative territory for the year It has been a discouraging first half of 2010, and the malaise feeling around the country and on the street has many wondering if the recovery has lost steam and a double dip at worst, or stagnation at best, is here.

U.S. crude oil futures hit a seven-week high on Friday after gaining $2.35, or 3.07 percent, at $78.86 a barrel. August is the front month contract, and advanced despite a choppy session on the street over concerns as we head into the Atlantic hurricane season. Gold for August delivery rose $10.30 to settle at $1,256.20 heading towards record territory.

Economic Rundown

Q1 GDP Below Natural Rate

Futures were negative early on in the premarket after the final reading Q1 GDP came in at a 2.7 percent annual rate, a 30 basis point downward revision. The consensus range was 2.8 percent on the downside to 3.3 percent on the high end. The GDP reading is the ultimate backwards looking indicator as we are closing out Q2 this week, however it goes to show how weak the first quarter was, and most agree Q2 was not any stronger, and by most accounts,weaker.

The market forecast had called for an unrevised figure at 3.0 percent. The downward revision to GDP growth primarily reflected an upward revision to imports and a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by upward revisions to exports and to private inventory investment.

Despite Sluggish Growth and Market Volatility, Consumers Feeling OK

Consumer Sentiment has been steadily rising over the past two months, which comes as a bit of a surprise to me and many others as the June reading comes in at the highest measure in nearly 2 years. Retailers are scared, the labor market is not improving etc..Reuters/University of Michigan’s index rose to 76.0 for the final June reading, up from 75.5 at mid-June, 73.6 in final May, 73.3 in mid-May, and 72.2 in final April.

Consumer spirits are tied most directly with employment conditions and the gains suggest that high levels of initial jobless claims may, as is widely discussed, be the result of special factors and not due to actual deterioration in the labor market — this is a very big point for the economic outlook.

Morning Outlook

Futures are up slightly in a choppy premarket session. Congressional leaders agreed on a sweeping overhaul of U.S. financial regulation. These bills are so complex and long that it will take some time to see how the new regulations play out, whether they significantly impact profits, and what the unintended consequences are. The euro is down sharply against the greenback, while crude is heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks, as retreating equity markets and growing supplies sowed doubts about the economic recovery.

It is the last Friday of the quarter, and investors will get final GDO data, which is backward looking and so far removed that any revision wouldn’t have a major impact. I am eyeing the June Consumer Sentiment number and expect to see a decline, despite the estimates of no change. There is a change in tone and feel as we head into summer, the economic slowdown is palpable. So far in the premarket, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 20, to 10,120.00. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 3 to 1,073.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures climbed 1.75 to 1,851.25.

On Thursday, the market saw its fourth consecutive day of declines. . The DJIA fell 145.64, or 1.4 percent, to 10,152.80. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 18.35, or 1.7 percent, to 1,073.69, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 36.81, 1.6 percent, to 2,217.42.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.0178% at 89.6210 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.3286% at $1.2293, while the pound lost 0.1774% to $1.4909. Gold moved up $2.10 to $1248, while silver fell 0.35% at $18.71. Light, sweet crude came off 9 cents to $76.42 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.12% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Quarter 1 Gross Domestic Product: GDP measures all the goods and services produced within the United States during the first quarter. The consensus final reading for real GDP (taking inflation into account) in the first quarter is for growth of 3% annualized with a 1% increase in the price level. Real GDP came in at 3% in the preliminary number last month.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for June is 75.5, on par with the previous reading which was a 1.9 point gain. We havent really seen a declne in sentiment despite the softening economy. This month could be the month that we see that down move, and wow will the market not want to see that.

Market Summary

Wall Street reversed early morning losses to finish higher on the session and the week. It was a mixed bag of economic data, with stocks sliding on disappointing Retail Sales, then paring losses on a stronger than expected Consumer Sentiment reading. The last hour of the session was once again good for equities heading into the weekend.

At the closing bell, the DJIA rose 38.54, or 0.4 percent, to 10,211.07. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index climbed 4.76, or 0.4 percent, to 1,091.60, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index advanced 24.89, or 1.1 percent, to 2,243.60. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies surged 9.21, or 1.4 percent, to 649.00. Health care and technology shares led the market higher.

For the week, the blue chips climbed 2.8 percent, the S&P 500 index rose 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.1 percent. It was the first weekly gain in nearly a month for the street.

Bond prices rose, with the 10 year benchmark U.S. treasury falling 9 basis points to 3.24 percent. The euro was stable against the greenback. Gold rose $8 to settle at $1,230.20 an ounce, ending the week up 1 percent after touching a new high of $1,254 on Tuesday. Crude oil for July was down $1.46 to $74.02 a barrel on the NYMEX, unable to hold $75.

Economic Calendar

Retail Sales Lead Early Market Decline

Retail sales in May fell 1.2 percent after gaining 0.6 percent in April and jumping 2.1 percent in March. May came in far lower than analysts’ expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. Sales excluding autos and gasoline posted a 0.8 percent drop, following a 0.6 percent boost in April.

Consumer spending has been healthy on average over the last several months, so some retreat is to be expected. However with the state of the economy the way it is, any negative decline will have the market thinking twice as to whether or not it is a signal of a retreat by the consumer.

Equities Turn Higher on Consumer Data

Usually we have seen a rise in sales and a below average reading on sentiment, however Friday saw the reversal. The preliminary reading for Consumer Sentiment in the month of June came in at 75.5 from 73.6 a month earlier. The number was well above the street’s forecast of 74.5.

So lets get this straight, sentiment is up, but retail sales fell for the month? Someone is lying here…

Morning Outlook

Futures are up slightly in the premarket Friday as the street goes for its first back to back gains since April. There is a full plate of economic reports on the calendar today that can extend recovery optimism. The euro is up, however crude is edging lower following sharp gains over the past few sessions. Sp far in premarket action, Dow Jones industrial average futures climbed 4 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 10,091. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 0.30, or less than 0.1 percent, to 1,079.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 2.75, or 0.2 percent, to 1,823.75.

Wall Street soared Thursday, with the blue chips getting their first close above 10K this week. Global economic optimism sent the DJIA climbed 273.28, or 2.8 percent, to 10,172.53. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 31.15, or 3 percent, to 1,086.84, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 59.86, or 2.8 percent, to 2,218.71. Small caps led the pack as the Russell 2000 index of exploded 21.50, or 3.5 percent, to 639.79

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3285% at 91.635 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1297% at $1.214 , while the pound declined 0.6066% to $1.4626. Gold was flat at $1222.30, while silver gained 0.13% at $18.37. Light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $0.23 to $75.25 on the NYMEX; a slight 0.30% decline after a run from $69 to $75.

Economic Calender

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in the month of May, which would be the 5th consecutive monthly increase. That figure is on par with the 0.4% gain in April. The consensus range falls as low as -0.5%. and upwards of 0.6%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The first reading of June estimate is 74, up from the final May reading of 73.6;which was a 0.3 point gain.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in April of 0.5% as businesses seem more optimistic about boosting stockpiles following the wholesale inventory report the other day. Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in February. Inventories have now risen in five of the last six months.