Morning Outlook

Futures rose slightly on Wall Street Friday following a nice red to green reversal into the close yesterday. Traders await further economic data this morning to help push these major averages past 15 month highs, Retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories all major components of GDP will give the market further direction. The strong late buying Thursday is a good indication of where the market wants to go. So far in futures trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 13, or 0.1 percent, to 10,631. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 1.60, or 0.2 percent, to 1,147.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures edged up 2.00, or 0.1 percent, to 1,924.50.

The weak dollar is helping energy and other mining/raw material sectors, which could give the market a leg up as financials have led the rally this week. On Thursday, the blue chips rose 44.51, or 0.4 percent, to 10,611.84. The S&P 500 index advanced 4.63, or 0.4 percent, to 1,150.24, while the Nasdaq advanced for the 6th consecutive session, rising 9.51, or 0.4 percent, to 2,368.46

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.0751% at 90.441 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.6629% to $1.3772 while the pound gained 0.6865% to $1.5165. Gold climbed $8.20 to $1116.40 an ounce, while silver advanced 0.82% at $17.30. Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 57 cents to $82.68 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.69% move up following the weaker greenback and increased OPEC demand forecast.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in the month of February despite better than expected same store sales data. That figure is down from an increase of 0.5% in January. The consensus range falls as low as -0.8%. and upwards of 0.3%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for March is 74, up from the prior reading of 73.6 for February. Trending higher jobless claims and rising energy costs are likely to depress the reading for the time being.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a gain in January of 0.2%. In December, inventories fell by 0.2%.; led by a 0.8% drop in wholesale inventories.

Stocks finished lower on Thursday, however rebounded off of their lows of the day, The Dow Jones Industrial average ended down 53.13 points, or 0.5%, at 10,321.03. The benchmark S&P 500 declined 2.31 points or 0.21% to 1,102.93, while the Nasdaq nearly broke even, ending 1.68 points lower to 2,234.22.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is trading mixed this premarket ahead of the days full load of economic data. We will be getting growth revisions before the bell, followed by what i expect to be disappointing consumer and housing reports. Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 26 at 10,342. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 0.90 at 1,103.20. The tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index is trading lower, down half of one point at 1,813.00.

All in all, i suspect the worse than expected data to weigh on trading as we enter the weekend. Join us in chat for trading today!

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.1678% at 89.224 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.2814% to $1.3587 while the pound lost 0.398% to $1.5205. Gold is down 10 cents to $1108.40 an ounce, while silver climbed 0.08% at $16.14. The front month April contract for light, sweet crude dropped 13 cents to $78.04 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.19% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Quarter 4 Gross Domestic Product: GDP measures all the goods and services produced within the United States during the second quarter. The consensus for real GDP (taking inflation into account) in the 4th quarter is growth of 5.7%, which is unchanged from the initial reading last month.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus final reading for February is 73.7, on par with the first reading of the month. Volatility is back in the market place, with jobess claims have gone back up. We are still far ahead of February’s low of 56.2, but dont be suprised to see a number to the downside following the horrific consumer confidence data earlier this week.

10:00 AM
Existing Home Sales: The number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. The only way we can unclog the housing market is by selling homes from the inventory that are already on the market. Prices have dropped sharply as stockpiles of foreclosed homes flood the market and economic unrest keeps potential buyers at bay. The consensus for January is a 5.5 million unit annual rate, which is an increase from a pace of 5.45 million in December which was a 16.7 percent decline; the largest drop on record, Supply of homes on the market now stands at 7.2 months

Major averages recovered from early losses Thursday to soar into the close, reversing a trend of weak into the finish. It was another triple digit move on the Dow as the blue chips advanced 105.88 points, or 1.05 percent, to close at 10,144.26. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 10.36 points, or 0.97 percent, to close at 1,078.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 29.54 points, or 1.38 percent, to close at 2,177.41.

Morning Outlook

Wall Street is following world markets lower Friday after data showed the euro zone had flat growth in the 4th quarter. In addition, China reiterated its stance that to tighten monetary policy, banks would be forced to raise reserve levels, taking liquidity out of the economy. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 65, or 0.6 percent, to 10,045. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 7.90, or 0.7 percent, to 1,068.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 16.00, or 0.9 percent, to 1,759.50. It will be a busy news day on the street, as data which has been postponed due to the government shutdown will be released. With all of the data points to steer trading, watch out for retail sales which I think will surprise to the upside.

Bottom line, expect a sell off heading into the long holiday weekend, there are too many macro economic questions out there unless a deal is struck on Greece, but that even may be anti climatic.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3676% at 90.10 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.9832% to a 9 month low of $1.3558 while the pound lost 0.6622% to $1.56. Gold fell $8.20 to $1086.50 an ounce, while silver plummeted 1.22% at $15.40 Light, sweet crude for March delivery tumbled $1.42 to $73.86 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 1.89% decline as it seems that back golds four day advance is coming to a screeching halt.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the month of January. That figure is up from the 30 basis point decline in December. The consensus range falls as low as -0.9%. and upwards of 0.7%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for February is 75, up from the prior reading of 74.4. Expectations have risen, however equities have faltered and weekly jobless claims have been trending higher, which could decrease sentiment.

2:00 PM
Treasury Budget: a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. The higher the deficit, the more Treasury notes and bonds the government must sell, and therefore the prices of such auctioned securities. The consensus for January is for a fiscal deficit of $46 billion in January, down from -$91.9 billion in December. As of December, the Treasury’s deficit stands at $388.5 billion, 17 percent ahead of last year. Keep printing that money baby!

Market Summary

The blue chips made it 6 losses out of 9 on Thursday, as stocks gave up modest early gains in futures trading to turn hard to the negative. The Dow fell 115.70, or 1.1 percent, to 10,120.46. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 12.97, or 1.2 percent, to 1,084.53, with the broad benchmark now down 2.7 percent for the month. The tech heavy Nasdaq was the hardest hit, falling 42.41, or 1.9 percent, to 2,179.00. A weaker outlook from technology maker Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) dragged the sector lower. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 10.45, or 1.7 percent, to 607.93.

Morning Outlook

After a sharp decline on Thursday, Wall Street is pointing to a higher opening Friday. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 27, or 0.3 percent, to 10,089. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 2.80, or 0.3 percent, to 1,082.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 2.50, or 0.1 percent, to 1,773.00.

Traders are awaiting preliminary numbers on fourth quarter GDP, while Ben Bernanke was reappointed to a second term helming the Fed. Markets have been hammered over the past two weeks, and today’s GDP data better meet expectations.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.3114% at 90.20 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.0927% to $1.3958 while the pound dropped 0.0801% to $1.6125. Gold rose 50 cents to $1085.30 an ounce, while silver climbed 0.60% at $16.31. The front month March contract for light, sweet crude added 16 cents to $73.80 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.22% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product: The market will receive initial figures for GDP in the last 3 months of 2009. Economists are looking for a 4.5 percent annual growth rate, which would be the fastest pace in nearly four years on massive government fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts. We saw a 2.2 percent final reading in Q3.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus final reading for January is 73, up from the prior reading of 72.8. Reflecting continued concern by households over high unemployment and few signs of hiring, the index has held in a very narrow and depressed range in recent months. Based on a recent rise in initial jobless claims and even a pullback in equities, sentiment could edge back down in the final reading for January.

Major averages posted solid gains Thursday, improving January’s first half gains. The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 29.78, or 0.3 percent, to 10,710.55. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index advanced 2.78, or 0.2 percent, to 1,148.46, and tech led the way as the Nasdaq composite index climbed 8.84, or 0.4 percent, to 2,316.74. Tech was the leader as INTC reported after the bell, while financials advanced before JPM’s premarket earnings release.

Morning Outlook

Futures on the street are heading lower on Friday. Despite JPM winning on the bottom line, the market seems to have expected to be impressed. Dow Jones industrial average futures are down 22, or 0.2 percent, at 10,641. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are down 3.20, or 0.3 percent, at 1,142.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 0.25, or less than 0.1 percent, at 1,888.50. Tech is higher following INTC reporting after the closing bell yesterday.

The street is also awaiting a consumer readings to try to close out the week on a positive note. This rally has been amazing to start 2010, and truly caught me by surprise. There is a difference between beating the street and quality earnings, so lets see how things unfold as earnings season progresses.

Three day weekend coming up, as the market will be closed for Martin Luther King Day!

On the Corporate Front

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) blew past Wall Stret estimates in the premarket. During the final quarter of 2009, the company saw earnings of $3.28 billion. JPM earned 74 cents per share, above analyst estimates of 61 cents. On the top line however, revenue rose 32% to $25.23 billion; below estimates of $26.81 billion in revenue.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in December, with a 0.1% gain excluding food and energy. This follows a 0.4% rise in November.

9:15 AM
Industrial Production: The index of industrial production measures the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. The consensus is for a production increase of 0.6% for the month of December; following a 0.8% advance in November with a strong showing by the manufacturing component.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus first reading for January is 74, up from the prior reading of 72.5. Equities have been rising, improving household wealth, while the housing market is shaky at best, but improvement is seen on that front. Jobless claims have fallen, but overall we are seeing higher prices at the pump and 15 million unemployed, with a 17.4 percent real unemployment rate.

Market Summary

Wall Street clawed out gains on the last full trading day before Christmas despite a significant and unexpected drop in new home sales. An increase in consumer spending and sentiment sent the Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.51, or 0.01 percent, to 10,466.44. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 2.57, or 0.2 percent, to 1,120.59, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 16.97, or 0.8 percent, to 2,269.64. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 7.38, or 1.2 percent, to 630.98. Despite the light volume, a gain is a gain. Consumer sentiment was 72.5 to close out 2009, the highest in three months, after 67.4 in November

Benchmark crude for February delivery rose $2.27 to settle at $76.67 on the NYMEX as inventories fell by nearly twice the amount expected or 5 million barrels. Upward pressure also hit commodities as the dollar fell.

Economic Run Down

The Commerce Department reported spending climbed 0.5 percent last month after increasing 0.6 percent in October. Personal income rose 0.4 percent last month, the largest increase since May, after gaining 0.3 percent in October. The rise in income saw savings increasing to an annual rate of $525.1 billion, but the savings rate was unchanged at 4.7 percent from the prior month.

Good news, the first steps before hiring are part time workers and increases in wages.

Sales of newly built single-family homes unexpectedly dropped 11.3 percent last month to a 355,000 unit annual rate. Financial markets had expected new home sales to increase to 440,000 units. the median sale price for a new home rising 3.8 percent from October to $217,400, the highest level since May. The number of new homes on the market last month still fell to 235,000, the lowest since April 1971.

We have had artificially high housing numbers from new and existing home sales thanks to the $8000 homebuyer tax credit. There was a huge rush to meet the original November 30th deadline, but after the extension we should see a more natural flow.

Wall Street made it two for two on this Christmas shortened trading week; rising on solid existing homes sales data. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 50.79, or 0.5 percent, to 10,464.93. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 3.97, or 0.4 percent, to 1,118.02, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 15.01, or 0.7 percent, to 2,252.67. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 5.00, or 0.8 percent, to 623.60.

Morning Outlook

Futures are looking to keep the winning streak alive on the street. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 28, or 0.3 percent, to 10,436. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 4.40, or 0.4 percent to 1,118.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 7.25, or 0.4 percent, to 1,848.25. Economic data, especially housing has been extremely positive, and traders hope to see further evidence of strong Q4 growth with new home sales.

The blue chips have had no trouble surpassing 10,500, so I expect that to be broken if trading continues in the same direction. Only a sharp downward surprise in today’s data could change the sentiment on the street.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar fell 0.0599% at 91.78 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.1074% to $1.4265 while the pound declined 0.1202% to $1.5946. Gold is down $4.50 to $1082.20 an ounce, while silver fell 0.50% at $16.94. Light, sweet crude for February delivery gained 26 cents to $74.66; an advance of 0.35% on economic momentum. The EIA will release their inventory report later today.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Personal Income: the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Consumer spending: Includes consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.

The consensus increase in personal income for the month of November is 0.5%, while October saw a rise of 0.2%. Consumer spending is expected to have risen 0.6% in the month, down 10 basis points from October. Core spending remains slow, while wages have flatlined as unemployment hovers at 10%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus final reading for December is 73.5, up from the prior reading of 73.4. The current conditions portion has seen the largest gain, hopefully alongside the rise in equities will translate into a solid holiday shopping season.

10:00 AM
New Home Sales: Measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates trends in the housing market. For November, new home sales are expected to be at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 after rising 6.2% in October to 430,000. Supply at the current sales rate fell to 6.7 months, while only 239,000 new homes were on the market in October in what was the lowest number going all the way back to 1971.

Wall Street saw its 2nd consecutive advance on Thursday as good economic data stemming from jobless claims and international trade lifted optimism that the world’s largest economy is on a steady path to recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 68.78 points, or 0.67 percent, to 10,405.83. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 6.37 points, or 0.58 percent, to 1,102.32, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced7.13 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,190.86.

Morning Outlook

Futures are pointing to a higher opening on the street Friday, as the major averages look for their 3rd consecutive gain to close out the week. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 43, or 0.4 percent, to 10,444. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures gained 5.40, or 0.5 percent, to 1,102.60, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 9.25, or 0.5 percent, to 1,807.25. The dollar is lower this morning, sending commodity prices higher. There is a bunch of economic news to be released this morning, so the straight lower greenback rising equity play may be effected.

I have a feeling we are going to see a nice move to the upside in the consumer sentiment reading as we head into the home stretch of the holiday season. Only 11K jobs lost in November, while household wealth increased by $2,7 trillion as equities rebound.

Currencies and Commodities

The dollar rose 0.7318% at 88.849 yen in the currency market. The euro appreciated 0.2003% to $1.4762 while the pound increased 0.059% to $1.6289. Gold made its way higher following yesterday’s first advance of the week, up $16.20 to $1142.40 an ounce, while silver edged up 2.46% at $17.61. Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 50 cents to $71.04 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.71% advance.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Retail Sales: measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in the month of November led by higher prices at the pump and auto sales. That figure is down from the 1.4% rise in October. The consensus range falls as low as 0.5%. and upwards of 1.2%.

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus reading for December is 68.2, up from the prior reading of 67.4. Household wealth continues to rebound as equities climb to 2009 highs. We have seen stabilization in the housing market as well. The big drag continues to be the high unemployment rate. However the decline in job losses could be a boost.

10:00 AM
Business Inventories: The dollar amount of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. The consensus is for a drop in October of 0.2% on declining sales. In September, inventories fell by 0.4%, while manufacturers’ inventories posted a 0.4 percent gain in October.

Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, as stocks fluctuated in trading following a host of economic data and comments from the central bank. In a very light volume session, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 17.24 points, or 0.16 percent, to end at 10,433.71. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.59 of a point, or 0.05 percent, to 1,105.65, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.83 points, or 0.31 percent, to 2,169.18.

Morning Outlook

Futures are heading higher Wednesday morning as investors show cautious optimism heading into the days data. It is the last session before the Thanksgiving holiday, followed by an abbreviated trading day on Friday. Dow Jones industrial average futures are up 36, or 0.4 percent, at 10,441. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are up 4.90, or 0.4 percent, at 1,108.00, while Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 9.00, or 0.5 percent, at 1,795.50. The dollar is down, obviously.

Everyone including myself is expecting high unemployment to curb consumer spending and hold back any real recovery. Any data to the contrary today will get the markets moving, as we have data on the big three sectors…housing, unemployment, and the consumer.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Durable goods orders: Measures the month over month change in orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. Usually durable goods orders follow the trend in consumer spending, and therefore, a measure of strength in the economy. The consensus estimate is for a 0.5 % increase in October, following a 1.0% move up in September.

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of November 21st , to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 495,000 for first time jobless claims, down from last week’s reading of 5-5,000; the four week moving average now stands at 514,000

9:55 AM
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus final reading for November is 67, up from the prior reading of 66 (which was a steep 4.6 point drop).

10:00 AM
New Home Sales: Measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month of October. The level of new home sales indicates trends in the housing market. For October, new home sales are expected to be at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 410,000 after falling 3.2% in September to 402,000. Supply stands at 7.5 months following last month’s reading.

U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday following four losing sessions as data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter after more than a year of contraction. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 199.89 points, or 2.05 percent, to 9,962.58. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 23.48 points, or 2.25 percent, to 1,066.11; its biggest one-day percentage gain in three months. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced up 37.94 points, or 1.84 percent, to close at 2,097.55. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 13.86, or 2.5 percent, to 580.22.

Morning Outlook

Coming off of Thursday’s massive gains, Wall Street is heading for a lower opening to close out the week. Ahead of economic data, which isn’t suppose to show signifigant positive news, traders may be looking to take some profits heading into the weekend. A nice jump in consumer sentiment would be nice, but with the jobs picture where it is i doubt that will occur to close out the month of October. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 45, or 0.5 percent, to 9,858. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures lost 5.30, or 0.5 percent, to 1,056.30, while Nasdaq 100 index futures declined 2.00, or 0.1 percent, to 1,705.50.

Currencies and Commodities

The greenback looked to recover following yesterday’s losses. The dollar fell 0.3296% at 91.105 yen in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.1113% to $1.4806 while the pound lost 0.0872% to $1.6534 . Following the prior days large gains, commodities fell with the advance in the dollar. Gold declined $2.40 to $1044.70 an ounce, while silver fell 0.54% at $16.56. Light, sweet crude for December shed 65 cents to $79.22 per barrel on the NYMEX; a 0.81% drop.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM

Personal Income: the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Consumer spending: Includes consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.
The consensus is for no change in personal income for the month of September, while August saw an increase of 0.2%. Consumer spending is expected to have declined 0.5% down 70 basis points from August mainly due to the cash for clunkers program. .

9:55 AM

Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending, by questioning 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. The consensus final reading for September is 70, up from the prior reading of 69.4. Rising equity prices have rebuilt portfolios and savings, while all signs point to housing stabilization. However, the employment situation is weighing heavily on the public.