Big week coming up in financial markets, as the holiday shortened week squeezes more economic data and earnings in the four day week. Also, Black Friday hits us this week, and retailers have shed inventory to prepare for a slow season, but at the end of the day, the holiday season is crucial for retailers to make something resembling a profit in line with the consensus.
Three important questions about the economy came up this week, and they may be answered next week. How the answers turn out may well signal where the market may end next week and, perhaps, in December.
Question No. 1: Where is technology going?
After a miss on the part of Dell Inc (DELL), the market will get a better picture of that Monday when Hewlett-Packard Corp (HPQ) reports its fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings.
HP is expected to report earnings of $1.13 a share, up from $1.03 a year ago, on revenue of $30.4 billion. Revenue is expected to be down 9.7%.
The key is how HP, the top PC maker, describes its PC business. It markets computers largely through retailers. So it has a big consumer franchise. But it also has a big corporate business.
Question No. 2: Is housing dead or alive? The news for housing this week was miserable. A big decline in housing starts in October to an annualized 529,000 units — 76% lower than the January 2006 peak — was largely driven by a big drop in apartment construction. Mortgage delinquencies now affect more than 10% of all outstanding mortgages.
Next week brings three more important looks at the housing market:
First up is existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors on Monday. IHS Global Insight sees the October rate hitting 5.85 million units, up from 5.57 million units in September and up 18% from a year ago. Any number that beats September’s sales rate is a bullish signal. Probably a third, maybe more, will come from first-time homebuyers scrambling to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit as well as foreclosed homes being unloaded by lenders.
Next is the S&P/Case-Shiller Index for September, due Tuesday. This tracks sale prices of existing homes in 20 major markets. The index has been trending higher since April or so.
Last is new-home sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. IHS Global sees slippage to a 394,000-unit sales rate, based on declining building permits and the 13-month period it takes to sell a new home. An important point about new-home sales: Typically, people who already own a home form the core of new-home buyers. Builders aren’t generally looking for first-time buyers.
Question No. 3: Has the U.S. dollar bottomed? For the pros on Wall Street, this was a big and important question. Granted, the dollar didn’t rise much. The U.S. Dollar Index was up just 0.4% to 75.73. The dollar was up 1.1% against the British pound, 0.3% against the euro and nearly 2% against the Canadian dollar. The greenback posted its fourth straight weekly loss versus the yen.
The dollar has been trading lower because traders believe the Federal Reserve when it says it will keep interest rates near zero to encourage economic growth.
Nonetheless, the week’s move higher had an important impact on stocks if only because nobody expected it. It hit oil prices, and energy stocks were among the week’s biggest losers.







