Jobless rate tops 10 percent in 15 states and DC, endangers economic recovery

Fifteen states have crossed a painful threshold: 10 percent unemployment. More states, and the nation, likely will follow, one of the biggest dangers to an economic recovery.

How consumers behave in the face of rising unemployment will figure prominently in shaping a broader rebound. If they go back into hibernation and sharply cut spending like they did at the end of last year, the recovery could cave in. More likely is that consumers will stay cautious, making for a fragile and slow-moving national economic turnaround, economists said.

The Labor Department on Friday said unemployment topped 10 percent in 15 states and the District of Columbia last month. And the jobless rate in Michigan surpassed 15 percent, the first time any state hit that mark since 1984.

The Federal Reserve this week projected that the national unemployment rate, currently at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, will pass 10 percent by the end of the year. Most Fed policymakers said it could take “five or six years” for the economy and the labor market to get back on a path of long-term health.

“With so much uncertainty, companies will stay in cost-cutting mode and consumers will watch their spending,” said Steve Cochrane, managing director at Moody’s Economy.com.

Take Michigan, ground zero of the recession.

Home to the nation’s struggling auto makers, Michigan has been clobbered by lost factory jobs. Its jobless rate of 15.2 percent in June was the nation’s highest. It was the first time in 25 years that any state has suffered an unemployment rate of at least 15 percent.

If laid-off workers who have given up looking for jobs or have settled for part-time work are included, the state’s jobless rate was 22.5 percent, according to Michigan’s Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Development. Nationwide unemployment by that measure was 16.5 percent in June, the highest on government records dating to 1994.

Many workers have seen hours trimmed, their pay cut and have lost benefits. Combine that with a dismal housing market making it difficult for people to sell their homes and move to other places to find work, some jobseekers are trapped.

The other states where unemployment topped 10 percent last month were: Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Tennessee. In May, 13 states plus the District of Columbia watched their jobless rates surpass 10 percent. Alabama and Georgia joined the list in June.