Markets Brace for Employment Situation, Will it Be a Happy Holiday Weekend?!
Posted Thursday, July 2nd, 2009 7:49 AM in DailyRead, Morning Outlook by ILive-Dave
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The street saw light volume on Tuesday as traders whined down the holiday shortened week. Stocks pared gains after being sharply higher, however finished the first day of the 3rd quarter with modest gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 57.06, or 0.7 %, to 8,504.06. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 4.01, or 0.4 %, to 923.33, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 10.68, or 0.6 %, to 1,845.72. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 9.18, or 1.8 %, to 517.46. Investors decided to take some profits ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, showing the employment situation through June.

The yield on the 10 year treasury climbed 2 basis points to over 3.54% as prices fell on government debt.

Morning Outlook

Markets in Asia retreated following the late day pullback on Wall Street ahead of the jobs report. Traders around the world are holding their breath to gain insight into the world’s largest economy and its labor status.

Overnight in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average closing down 63.78 points, or 0.6 %, at 9,876.15, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 200.68 points, or 1.1 %, to 18,178.05. In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 33.54 points, or 0.8 %, at 4,307.17 while Germany’s DAX fell 77.23 points, or 1.6 %, to 4,828.21. The CAC-40 in France was 36.75 points lower, or 1.1 %, at 3,180.25.

Wall Street points negative ahead of the premarket data. The expected 9.6% unemployment rate would be the highest level in 26 years. In premarket trading, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 48, or 0.57 %, to 8,400. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures declined 6.70, or 0.73 %, to 912.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 8.75, or 0.59 %, to 1,470.00.

Currencies and Commodities

Major currencies were mixed against the greenback Wednesday, as the euro zone saw its unemployment rate jump to 9.5%. The dollar traded at 96.644 yen, falling 0.011% in the currency market. The euro depreciated 0.5277% to $1.4067 while the pound lost 0.5232% to $1.6392. Gold rose lost $8.30 to $933 an ounce, while silver dropped 2.07% at $13.48. Light, sweet crude for August delivery tumbled $1.54 to $67.77 a barrel on the NYMEX; a 2.22% decline.

Economic Calendar

8:30 AM
Employment Situation: The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation’s business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts expect 350,000 jobs to have been cut in June, while the unemployment rate rises from 9.4% to 9.6%.

Nonfarm payroll employment fell a modest 345,000 in May, its fourth straight decline following the 741,000 plunge in January.

8:30 AM
Jobless Claims: New unemployment claims for the week of June 27th, to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, the more income in the consumer’s pocket, as well as a forecast on the strength of the economy. The consensus is for an increase of 619,000 for first time jobless claims, down from last week’s reading of 627,000 as claims from the educational sector hit the market which is a seasonal occurrence

10:00 AM
Factory Orders: Represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. The consensus is for an increase of 1.4% for the month of May as businesses start replenishing inventory. The reading follows a 0.7% rise in April.





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